07/11: Missouri Update
Gateway Pundit is on top of the Missouri races. Turnout today looks like it will be huge, perhaps 70% in some areas of the state. The thinking is that the larger the turnout the better for Talent.
Update at 4:51. From Gateway Pundit. Turnout in the City of St. Louis looks to be high, perhaps 60%. High turnout in the city is good for McCaskill since the vote usually goes Dem. (And this figure would not count the cemetary vote which also goes Dem in St. Louis.)
Update at 4:51. From Gateway Pundit. Turnout in the City of St. Louis looks to be high, perhaps 60%. High turnout in the city is good for McCaskill since the vote usually goes Dem. (And this figure would not count the cemetary vote which also goes Dem in St. Louis.)
07/11: Election Day Thoughts
Category: Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
I have been too busy to think politics for several days. (Pastoral duties including a funeral yesterday and one tomorrow, plus preaching in two churches in Iowa over the weekend.) So I now offer some comments that are not completely thought out.
1. I was in the 1st Congressional District in Iowa Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Yard and roadside signs were about even between Braley (D) and Whalen (R). I was somewhat surprised to see a large number of Braley signs in farm yards. Over Sunday lunch in Waterloo with a group of people from the church I asked for predictions. One woman was active in Republican politics and answered that she thought the outcome would depend on voter turnout. I think this race is too close to call.
2. Sunday late afternoon I was in Pella at a family home when the phone rang. It was a prerecorded call from Rudy Guilliani on behalf of the Republican candidate for governor Nussle. While this race is close, I am going to predict Culver (D). The Pella area has been a Republican stronghold in Iowa for several years, and if the Repubs are still paying attention to their base areas on the Sunday before the election, then things are not good.
3. Missouri, my home state. I listened to some Missouri radio stations while driving the rental car from Des Moines to Waterloo Saturday evening. What I mostly heard were McCaskill ads and they seemed pretty strong. The race appears to be so close that I am going with McCaskill (D) over Talent (R). Democrats will win close statewide elections in Missouri until fraud and corruption in St. Louis, and some other places, are cleaned up.
4. My general sense is that the Republicans have the momentum going into today. I think they'll hold the Senate and keep the Democrats to a narrow control of the House.
1. I was in the 1st Congressional District in Iowa Saturday evening and Sunday morning. Yard and roadside signs were about even between Braley (D) and Whalen (R). I was somewhat surprised to see a large number of Braley signs in farm yards. Over Sunday lunch in Waterloo with a group of people from the church I asked for predictions. One woman was active in Republican politics and answered that she thought the outcome would depend on voter turnout. I think this race is too close to call.
2. Sunday late afternoon I was in Pella at a family home when the phone rang. It was a prerecorded call from Rudy Guilliani on behalf of the Republican candidate for governor Nussle. While this race is close, I am going to predict Culver (D). The Pella area has been a Republican stronghold in Iowa for several years, and if the Repubs are still paying attention to their base areas on the Sunday before the election, then things are not good.
3. Missouri, my home state. I listened to some Missouri radio stations while driving the rental car from Des Moines to Waterloo Saturday evening. What I mostly heard were McCaskill ads and they seemed pretty strong. The race appears to be so close that I am going with McCaskill (D) over Talent (R). Democrats will win close statewide elections in Missouri until fraud and corruption in St. Louis, and some other places, are cleaned up.
4. My general sense is that the Republicans have the momentum going into today. I think they'll hold the Senate and keep the Democrats to a narrow control of the House.
07/11: Election Day
Not much left to say. Today America speaks.
Having said that, I will have commentary throughout the day.
Some things to talk about:
1. George the lion-hearted. Although the conventional wisdom seemed to argue against it, President Bush personalized and nationalized the election over the last two weeks. Even more courageous, as every poll indicated that Iraq was a losing issue, the President took to the stump and preached Iraq. For all of us who believe that elections should be about major issues, we must give the President credit for that decision.
2. Anything less than a "wave election" will be a demoralizing failure for the Democratic Party in the light of the great expectations.
3. My prediction: the system will work, and democracy will prevail.
4. May God bless America.
Having said that, I will have commentary throughout the day.
Some things to talk about:
1. George the lion-hearted. Although the conventional wisdom seemed to argue against it, President Bush personalized and nationalized the election over the last two weeks. Even more courageous, as every poll indicated that Iraq was a losing issue, the President took to the stump and preached Iraq. For all of us who believe that elections should be about major issues, we must give the President credit for that decision.
2. Anything less than a "wave election" will be a demoralizing failure for the Democratic Party in the light of the great expectations.
3. My prediction: the system will work, and democracy will prevail.
4. May God bless America.
05/11: Holding the Senate
On Fox News Sunday today, Mara Liasson noted that Harold Ford and Michael Steele have run the best campaigns for the Senate this cycle. She is absolutely right. Ironically, they are both likely to lose. Of course, they are both African American. Interestingly, one is a Democrat running in a center-right upper-South state (Ford in Tennessee). The other is a Republican running in a solidly Democratic mid-Atlantic state (Steele in Maryland).
Most likely, they will both run close races--but fall short. Ford has been tremendous, but Steele has been the biggest surprise. As the red-hot Democratic superstar, Barack Obama, stumped for Steele's white opponent in Maryland this week, I could not help but think that Steele had proved himself the most articulate and dynamic of the new generation of African-American politicians.
The Democrats need a fifteen seat gain (or sixteen--depending on Gene Taylor) to win control of the House, which they will achieve. The House will change hands as a result of what happens on Tuesday. The only real argument is about margin. I do not dismiss the predictions of a 30-seat swing (or more)--but a spread of that magnitude strikes me as improbable. The word on the lips of every pundit this last fortnight has been "wave election." A 30+ margin would mean a tremendous wave. I am not convinced that this midterm presents that sort of political storm. On the other hand, a message that strong is not impossible. We will see.
For the Democrats to win control of the Senate, they need to net six seats on Tuesday. Baring a political tsunami, however, the GOP should beat back the late Democratic charge:
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee, America's most liberal Republican senator, will lose RI, which has not generated more than 40 percent of the popular vote for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. This very blue state will elect a blue senator (+1 for Democrats).
Pennsylvania: Two-term GOP incumbent Rick Santorum has run ten points behind Bob Casey for months. No reason to expect anything unexpected (+2 for Democrats).
Ohio: As much as I hate to see it, all the polling indicates that Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, an excellent senator, will fall to unabashedly ultra-liberal Sherrod Brown. Although I am still hoping for a miracle here, it looks like curtains for the center-right DeWine (+3 for Democrats).
Maryland: Although Steele has run a great race in Maryland (and I give him a slight chance for pulling off a huge upset), he is unlikely to win the seat vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes in the rock-sold blue state (no change, +3 for Democrats).
New Jersey: The other state in which a Republican candidate, Tom Kean, Jr, seemed in position to potentially pick up an opposition seat looks increasingly secure for the short-tenured Democratic incumbent, Bob Menendez (no change, +3 for Democrats).
Arizona: Republican incumbent Jon Kyl holds (no change, +3 for Democrats).
Montana: Scandal-plagued Republican incumbent, Conrad Burns, looked all but out of the race two weeks ago. He has come back. Montana is a strong red state. The President has campaigned for him. This is a true toss-up, but Burns has yet to hit 50 percent in any of the polls. Most likely, Burns falls just short. Tester wins by a nose (+4 for Democrats).
Which leaves the most important three races:
Virginia: I predicted a month ago that Allen would hold. Frankly, the contest appears much closer than I thought it would be at this point. No matter, I continue to pick VA for Republican incumbent George Allen (no change, +4 for Democrats).
Note: Many observers have called Missouri the bell-weather state--but Virginia is the state that Republicans really cannot afford to lose.
Tennessee: Although this race seemed extremely close even a week ago, the inherent Republican advantage seems to have caved in on the impressive Democratic candidate, Harold Ford. Bob Corker should hold the Republican seat vacated by retiring Majority Leader, Bill Frist (no change, +4 for Democrats).
Missouri: GOP Republican incumbent Jim Talent, who won election four years ago with a razor-thin margin, faces a dead-heat against an attractive Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. This contest may be the closest of the cycle. Both of these candidates have won and lost statewide elections by fractions of a percentage point. This race is impossible to call with any certainty, although there are some indications that the vote may be breaking against the stem-cell amendment and for McKaskill. On the other hand, if my calculations hold up to this point, this state will not determine control of the Senate. Having said all that, I pick Talent because he is an excellent senator, and I want him to win (no change, +4 for Democrats).
Republicans hold (51-49).
Most likely, they will both run close races--but fall short. Ford has been tremendous, but Steele has been the biggest surprise. As the red-hot Democratic superstar, Barack Obama, stumped for Steele's white opponent in Maryland this week, I could not help but think that Steele had proved himself the most articulate and dynamic of the new generation of African-American politicians.
The Democrats need a fifteen seat gain (or sixteen--depending on Gene Taylor) to win control of the House, which they will achieve. The House will change hands as a result of what happens on Tuesday. The only real argument is about margin. I do not dismiss the predictions of a 30-seat swing (or more)--but a spread of that magnitude strikes me as improbable. The word on the lips of every pundit this last fortnight has been "wave election." A 30+ margin would mean a tremendous wave. I am not convinced that this midterm presents that sort of political storm. On the other hand, a message that strong is not impossible. We will see.
For the Democrats to win control of the Senate, they need to net six seats on Tuesday. Baring a political tsunami, however, the GOP should beat back the late Democratic charge:
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee, America's most liberal Republican senator, will lose RI, which has not generated more than 40 percent of the popular vote for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. This very blue state will elect a blue senator (+1 for Democrats).
Pennsylvania: Two-term GOP incumbent Rick Santorum has run ten points behind Bob Casey for months. No reason to expect anything unexpected (+2 for Democrats).
Ohio: As much as I hate to see it, all the polling indicates that Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, an excellent senator, will fall to unabashedly ultra-liberal Sherrod Brown. Although I am still hoping for a miracle here, it looks like curtains for the center-right DeWine (+3 for Democrats).
Maryland: Although Steele has run a great race in Maryland (and I give him a slight chance for pulling off a huge upset), he is unlikely to win the seat vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes in the rock-sold blue state (no change, +3 for Democrats).
New Jersey: The other state in which a Republican candidate, Tom Kean, Jr, seemed in position to potentially pick up an opposition seat looks increasingly secure for the short-tenured Democratic incumbent, Bob Menendez (no change, +3 for Democrats).
Arizona: Republican incumbent Jon Kyl holds (no change, +3 for Democrats).
Montana: Scandal-plagued Republican incumbent, Conrad Burns, looked all but out of the race two weeks ago. He has come back. Montana is a strong red state. The President has campaigned for him. This is a true toss-up, but Burns has yet to hit 50 percent in any of the polls. Most likely, Burns falls just short. Tester wins by a nose (+4 for Democrats).
Which leaves the most important three races:
Virginia: I predicted a month ago that Allen would hold. Frankly, the contest appears much closer than I thought it would be at this point. No matter, I continue to pick VA for Republican incumbent George Allen (no change, +4 for Democrats).
Note: Many observers have called Missouri the bell-weather state--but Virginia is the state that Republicans really cannot afford to lose.
Tennessee: Although this race seemed extremely close even a week ago, the inherent Republican advantage seems to have caved in on the impressive Democratic candidate, Harold Ford. Bob Corker should hold the Republican seat vacated by retiring Majority Leader, Bill Frist (no change, +4 for Democrats).
Missouri: GOP Republican incumbent Jim Talent, who won election four years ago with a razor-thin margin, faces a dead-heat against an attractive Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. This contest may be the closest of the cycle. Both of these candidates have won and lost statewide elections by fractions of a percentage point. This race is impossible to call with any certainty, although there are some indications that the vote may be breaking against the stem-cell amendment and for McKaskill. On the other hand, if my calculations hold up to this point, this state will not determine control of the Senate. Having said all that, I pick Talent because he is an excellent senator, and I want him to win (no change, +4 for Democrats).
Republicans hold (51-49).
03/11: Another One Bites the Dust
The list of Christian leaders who have fallen because of a sex scandal is too, too long. Today we add another name: Ted Haggard. Haggard is a nationally prominent figure, the president of the National Association of Evangelicals, and a leader against same-sex marriage. He also is pastor of New Life Church in Colorado, a megachurch.
The accusations come from a male prostitute who works as an "escort." He claims a three-year relationship, including sex and methamphetamine use. Haggard has admitted to buying meth, but claims he never used it; and admits to receiving a massage from the accuser, but not sex. He has resigned from the presidency of the NAE and is on adminstrative leave from his church. See this article.
Forget about the timing of the accusations. Since I have trouble believing in terrific coincidences, I suspect the accusations were timed to impact the elections, especially the same-sex marriage issues on the ballot. But that is not the important issue. The truth and integrity of the Christian ministry is the more important issue.
Haggard's claims so far sound much too lawyerly to me, rather than truly Christian contrition. He admits to the massage but not to sex: what was he thinking when he hired an escort and had a massage? He admits to buying meth but not to using it: again, what was he thinking when he bought it? Brother Haggard, you've done damage. Come clean publicly because you are a public figure; then, after repenting, leave the public eye and your big church. Go work in a Rescue Mission, Soup Kitchen, or some other non-glorious place.
Why do we have these scandals regularly? And why do we have so many, more even than make the national press? (thoughts below)
The accusations come from a male prostitute who works as an "escort." He claims a three-year relationship, including sex and methamphetamine use. Haggard has admitted to buying meth, but claims he never used it; and admits to receiving a massage from the accuser, but not sex. He has resigned from the presidency of the NAE and is on adminstrative leave from his church. See this article.
Forget about the timing of the accusations. Since I have trouble believing in terrific coincidences, I suspect the accusations were timed to impact the elections, especially the same-sex marriage issues on the ballot. But that is not the important issue. The truth and integrity of the Christian ministry is the more important issue.
Haggard's claims so far sound much too lawyerly to me, rather than truly Christian contrition. He admits to the massage but not to sex: what was he thinking when he hired an escort and had a massage? He admits to buying meth but not to using it: again, what was he thinking when he bought it? Brother Haggard, you've done damage. Come clean publicly because you are a public figure; then, after repenting, leave the public eye and your big church. Go work in a Rescue Mission, Soup Kitchen, or some other non-glorious place.
Why do we have these scandals regularly? And why do we have so many, more even than make the national press? (thoughts below)
Category: America and the World
Posted by: an okie gardener
The New York Times reveals today that IRAQ CLOSE TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRIOR TO INVASION that removed Saddam Hussein. Here.
Of course, that's not their headline, which reads: U.S. Web Archive Is Said to Reveal a Nuclear Primer (spinspinspinspin)
Here are some relevant paragraphs
But in recent weeks, the site [posting in English captured documents from Saddam's regime] has posted some documents that weapons experts say are a danger themselves: detailed accounts of Iraq’s secret nuclear research before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The documents, the experts say, constitute a basic guide to building an atom bomb.
And, deep in the article
Among the dozens of documents in English were Iraqi reports written in the 1990s and in 2002 for United Nations inspectors in charge of making sure Iraq had abandoned its unconventional arms programs after the Persian Gulf war. Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.
The Times, surprise, focuses the entire article on the release of the documents, which it describes as a major mistake that could help countries such as Iran build weapons themselves.
Big-time hat tip to Wizbang, and the sites linked to from there.
Kinda puts a crimp in the whole "Bush lied" thing.
btw, this morning I listened to world news while in my car twice from two different networks: not a peep about this article.
Of course, that's not their headline, which reads: U.S. Web Archive Is Said to Reveal a Nuclear Primer (spinspinspinspin)
Here are some relevant paragraphs
But in recent weeks, the site [posting in English captured documents from Saddam's regime] has posted some documents that weapons experts say are a danger themselves: detailed accounts of Iraq’s secret nuclear research before the 1991 Persian Gulf war. The documents, the experts say, constitute a basic guide to building an atom bomb.
And, deep in the article
Among the dozens of documents in English were Iraqi reports written in the 1990s and in 2002 for United Nations inspectors in charge of making sure Iraq had abandoned its unconventional arms programs after the Persian Gulf war. Experts say that at the time, Mr. Hussein’s scientists were on the verge of building an atom bomb, as little as a year away.
The Times, surprise, focuses the entire article on the release of the documents, which it describes as a major mistake that could help countries such as Iran build weapons themselves.
Big-time hat tip to Wizbang, and the sites linked to from there.
Kinda puts a crimp in the whole "Bush lied" thing.
btw, this morning I listened to world news while in my car twice from two different networks: not a peep about this article.
02/11: Mental Recess
When I was a kid, my favorite part of school was recess. I find I still need it today. So, in the midst of my crazy life, and this crazy election, and this crazy world, let's do recess.
Wizbang, in a similar mood, has posted a list of all-time favorite TV theme songs here. My list is below. Add yours in the comments if so inclined.
1. Mr. Lucky
2. Peter Gunn
3. Miami Vice
4. Ironside
5. The Mod Squad
6. Secret Agent
7. Beverly Hillbillies
8. Dukes of Hazard
9. Alfred Hitchcock Presents
10. Twilight Zone
Wizbang, in a similar mood, has posted a list of all-time favorite TV theme songs here. My list is below. Add yours in the comments if so inclined.
1. Mr. Lucky
2. Peter Gunn
3. Miami Vice
4. Ironside
5. The Mod Squad
6. Secret Agent
7. Beverly Hillbillies
8. Dukes of Hazard
9. Alfred Hitchcock Presents
10. Twilight Zone
02/11: Nazi-Mideast Connections
Category: America and the World
Posted by: an okie gardener
In the context of talking about something else, Jihadwatch has these paragraphs
In 1948, the Armenian-American journalist Arthur A. Derounian, who infiltrated Nazi groups in America and wrote about his adventures in the bestseller Under Cover (published under the pseudonym John Roy Carlson), traveled to the Middle East, where he used the Nazi connections he had made to get in with Arab groups preparing to destroy the nascent State of Israel. He met the pro-Nazi Mufti of Jerusalem (the one who met with Hitler and raised an SS squadron of Bosnian Muslims), Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan Al-Banna, and many other pivotal and fascinating figures -- all chronicled in his absorbing book From Cairo to Damascus.
And along the way he meets with German Nazi soldiers who have come to the Middle East to pursue their maniacal Jew-hatred. They expressed to him on several occasions their exasperation with the Muslim soldiers they were trying to aid: "These Arabs make big talk," one told Derounian, "but do not fight like an army. They are not trained. They do not know discipline." Derounian encountered Arab warriors who would fire their guns into the distance indiscriminately until their ammunition was all gone, and then retire from their positions; others who stormed a kibbutz and settled down to gorge themselves on the chickens there, only to be overwhelmed by a surprise counterattack. Read the book and you'll find many other such examples.
I had known about the Baath Party (Syria and formerly Iraq) origins among Arabs influenced in the 1930s by European fascism. (Syria sheltered one of the last Nazi war criminals on the lam). And, I knew a bit about the Jerusalem Mufti and Hitler. This is the first I've heard of Nazi soldiers winding up in the Mideast after the war.
In 1948, the Armenian-American journalist Arthur A. Derounian, who infiltrated Nazi groups in America and wrote about his adventures in the bestseller Under Cover (published under the pseudonym John Roy Carlson), traveled to the Middle East, where he used the Nazi connections he had made to get in with Arab groups preparing to destroy the nascent State of Israel. He met the pro-Nazi Mufti of Jerusalem (the one who met with Hitler and raised an SS squadron of Bosnian Muslims), Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan Al-Banna, and many other pivotal and fascinating figures -- all chronicled in his absorbing book From Cairo to Damascus.
And along the way he meets with German Nazi soldiers who have come to the Middle East to pursue their maniacal Jew-hatred. They expressed to him on several occasions their exasperation with the Muslim soldiers they were trying to aid: "These Arabs make big talk," one told Derounian, "but do not fight like an army. They are not trained. They do not know discipline." Derounian encountered Arab warriors who would fire their guns into the distance indiscriminately until their ammunition was all gone, and then retire from their positions; others who stormed a kibbutz and settled down to gorge themselves on the chickens there, only to be overwhelmed by a surprise counterattack. Read the book and you'll find many other such examples.
I had known about the Baath Party (Syria and formerly Iraq) origins among Arabs influenced in the 1930s by European fascism. (Syria sheltered one of the last Nazi war criminals on the lam). And, I knew a bit about the Jerusalem Mufti and Hitler. This is the first I've heard of Nazi soldiers winding up in the Mideast after the war.
Category: America and the World
Posted by: an okie gardener
The Washington Times carries this UPI story here. A portion:
A foiled British terror plot to blow up 10 passenger aircraft with liquid bombs was meant to occur over U.S. cities, a senior FBI official says.
Mark Mershon, head of the FBI's New York field office, made the observation at the Infosecurity 2006 conference in New York on Oct. 24. The conference was reported on this week by Government Security News.
"The plan was bring them down over U.S. cities, not over the ocean," Mershon said, adding the plotters' goal was to maximize damage and loss of life.
Ironic perhaps, frustrating certainly, that success has led to complacency by many regarding the threat we live under.
A foiled British terror plot to blow up 10 passenger aircraft with liquid bombs was meant to occur over U.S. cities, a senior FBI official says.
Mark Mershon, head of the FBI's New York field office, made the observation at the Infosecurity 2006 conference in New York on Oct. 24. The conference was reported on this week by Government Security News.
"The plan was bring them down over U.S. cities, not over the ocean," Mershon said, adding the plotters' goal was to maximize damage and loss of life.
Ironic perhaps, frustrating certainly, that success has led to complacency by many regarding the threat we live under.
I do not think I ever have linked to an Ann Coulter essay. Usually I am in agreement with her, so its a matter of style rather than of substance. As I hope you've noticed, this blog aims for an even-handed, thoughtful tone.
But, her recent column in Jewish World Review is worth reading, if only for one question she poses: will any Democrat gains next week match historic patterns for 6th year presidential terms?
In other words, the proper context in which to understand any shifts in seats next week is not merely the change from one Congress to another, but how well the party out of power has done in off-year elections, especially 6th year elections.
And, it is beginning to look like even if Dems make gains, they will fall short of historic patterns. So, what's wrong with the Democrats? And if they pick up seats, is it really a mandate?
But, her recent column in Jewish World Review is worth reading, if only for one question she poses: will any Democrat gains next week match historic patterns for 6th year presidential terms?
In other words, the proper context in which to understand any shifts in seats next week is not merely the change from one Congress to another, but how well the party out of power has done in off-year elections, especially 6th year elections.
And, it is beginning to look like even if Dems make gains, they will fall short of historic patterns. So, what's wrong with the Democrats? And if they pick up seats, is it really a mandate?
