The Bosque Boys

A wonkish debate is going on right now among campaign insiders: Will the GOP turn-out machine pull this rabbit out of the hat? Because Karl Rove insists that he is supremely confident that the GOP will hold the House, he has a lot of people in-the-know (who probably should know better) very nervous. Is this guy really going to beat us again?

An aside: on the lunatic-fringe side of the ledger, a debate is going on right now as to whether Karl Rove and Halliburton can steal the election through "rigged" voting machines. This debate among conspiracy theorists presents a very real problem, if, somehow, the Republicans were to hold the House. That is, we could very well see an irate splinter of the Democratic Party's most radical element take to the streets in mass protest.

Back to the more sane debate: the debate is really between the forces of "turn out" and the adherents of "persuasion." A few years ago, we heard non-stop chatter about "swing voters." Remember that? Those voters who could be persuaded regarding issues like the economy, health care, deficit spending, national defense, etc. The "independents."

However, for the last few election cycles, the buzz word has been turn out. The new conventional wisdom held that Americans had basically made up their minds about politics. They could not be persuaded; they could only be mobilized to vote or depressed into staying home. So we have heard statements like this: "Hillary energizes the Republican base;" and "the Gay Marriage issue is designed to mobilize evangelicals" (who, if they come out, will vote Republican).

Well, which is it: persuasion or turn out? The answer is "YES." It is both. This is why the GOP is in trouble. Americans are extremely unhappy with Iraq, the Bush administration and the Republican Congress. For all the talk about turn out and party infrastructure, policy and character still matter.

The GOP forgot that Ronald Reagan beat the media and the awesome Democratic infrastructure (without the help of a friendly conservative alternative media, conservative think-tanks or Karl Rove's ground forces). How did he do it? Ronald Reagan brought a cogent message to the American people with style, sincerity and wit.

The only saving grace for the GOP this time around is that the Democrats are just as lost as the Republicans. Neither John Kerry, Howard Dean or Nancy Pelosi approaches the sublime political artistry of Ronald Reagan.

The silver lining: we may be on the verge of a new cycle in which policy and results matter to politicians once again.

More Islamic tolerance on display in Iraq. The Mandaeans are experiencing severe persecution at the hands of Muslims. The Mandaeans are a small religion that claim descent from John the Baptist. Cardinal George Pell speaks here on behalf of more being admitted as refugees to Australia.

Incontrovertible evidence that we dodged a bullet in 2004:

"I sincerely regret that my words were misinterpreted to wrongly imply anything negative about those in uniform, and I personally apologize to any service member, family member, or American who was offended."

--From the tortured soul of John F. Kerry (the brief statement in its entirety).


Caution: this story has run its course. Republicans should not hang their hats on this Kerry debacle, which will not turn the tide of this election.

From Charlie Cook (courtesy of National Journal):

"The bottom line is that at this stage, Republicans should consider themselves lucky if their net losses stay in the 20-25 range in the House, four or five seats in the Senate, and between five and eight governorships. It would be a tough election, losing their majorities in the House and governorships, but it would fall short of the devastating losses that are possible. But the chances of this thing going bigger -- far bigger -- still exist, and there are quite a few veteran Republican strategists, people who have done tons of races in all kinds of states and districts for many years, who are bracing themselves for that distinct possibility."

The analysis piece in its entirety.

Remember: Charlie Cook is the best (and he generally leans Republican).

Free Republic has posted the text of Rick Santorum's new speech online here. I believe this speech is Churchillian in its open-eyed honesty. Once again the clouds are gathering.

Here are a few portions below:

» Read More

Six days out.

The Kerry misstatement is a gift. I am convinced that Kerry did not mean what he said; just as I am convinced that George Allen had no idea what macaca meant. But there they are: on tape; both running off at the mouth. We are definitely living in the "You Tube" world. For Kerry, as it was for Allen as well, there is justice in this massive misunderstanding. The intended joke that misfired was a shot at President Bush's education, which, ironically, is very similar to Kerry's--only better. Kerry in his own inimitable and humor-challenged style blew the line. Once again, who's the dummy here? Who is the king of the malaprop?

An aside: part of the problem for Kerry on this PR disaster is that what he actually said (as opposed to what he really meant) resonates with a sub-set of commonly held beliefs among some of his adherents. The Kerry advocates on C-SPAN this morning were divided between callers explaining what he actually meant and those defending him on the merits of the assertion that the army was for the poor and uneducated.

But I am not sure how long this story can play. Without the Washington Post and/or NYT behind it, this moment will lose its momentum fairly quickly. This will not hang around in the MSM like the Allen story. Admittedly, I am surprised at the attention it has garnered already--due, in part, to the astuteness of the White House (and the helpful assist from John McCain) and, more importantly, to Kerry's clumsy and bombastic denials and non-apology.

Again, the irony is thick: "Bush is a dummy; I am smart." But here I go again falling into the pit I built for my idiotic opponent. "I can't believe I am losing to this guy."

For the record, an aggressive NJ state supreme court ruling in favor of same-sex coupling was also a gift. But if a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, did it really make a sound? That story does not seem to have any traction.

Bottom line: Don't count on either of those missteps to save the GOP.

There was a story making the rounds yesterday that indicates that the election coverage this cycle favors the Democrats. And we are fairly sure that cigarettes are bad for your health. I understand the psychological need for stories that confirm what we already know (see: we're not crazy), but we need to get beyond that.

For a long time we have known that no GOP candidate can win nationally without finding a way around the mainstream media. Just do it!

Disturbing thought on early voting: All the good voters have voted. The voters, who are left, for the most part, are the ones who care the least and are the least informed. If they are "guilted" into voting, they will make their decisions based on which candidate moves them the most emotionally with the most effective television ad or some other campaign tool.

One last thing: Who's going to win? Still too tough to call. The Cook Political Report is suggesting a 30-vote swing in favor of the Democrats in the House and perhaps loss of control in the Senate as possible-to-likely. That is bad news for the GOP. Cook doesn't go off half-cocked.

The President is amazing. I love that he and Rove have defied the conventional wisdom and attacked. The Democratic Party dared him to make this about him, and he accepted the challenge (after this is all over, we may say he "took the bait"). You would think that a president with an approval rating in the high-30s would be foolish to nationalize a congressional election--but the truth is that he had little choice. If the option was talk about Foley, corruption and the abominable Republican Congress or talk about Bush, the President and Rove were right to pick Bush.

No one who understands what is happening right now on the ground in 435 congressional districts is talking about demoralized cultural conservatives. The GOP base in now on the march. Rove touts the structural advantage of the Republican campaign apparatus and incumbency, and he is right, but it remains to be seen if that is enough.

We will see. We do not have long to wait. This time next week.

With the Kansas City Star reporting the Missouri Senate race between Talent (R) and McCaskill (D) a dead heat at 49/49, perhaps a relatively small thing could tip the scales. Gateway Pundit has this report of the emerging scandal in which a McCaskill ad uses an Iraq veteran making what more and more appear to be false claims.

I am a Missouri native. For some context: there are lots of veterans in Missouri, including large numbers of folks who have served in Iraq through the Guard. Sullivan County, my home, has a small population (Milan, the county seat has less than 2000 people and it is far and away the largest town) but a large billboard on the courthouse lawn with the names of those who have or are serving in combat zones since 9/11. Its a long list for a small population county. Anything that a veteran and/or service member could take offense at is potentially big.

And, I'm sure Missouri Dems want to bind and gag John Kerry until after the election.

Amir Taheri makes the case: a defeat for the enemy in the combat zone, a victory in the American media. Well worth reading. Here. Hat tip Rush.

Radio Netherlands is covering a developing story that a sermon in a mosque in the Netherlands may have inspired the murder of Dutch filmaker Theo van Gogh. A recording of the sermon exists. Hat tip Jihadwatch.

In the recording of the sermon, Imam Fawaz calls Theo van Gogh a 'criminal bastard' and beseeches Allah to visit an incurable disease upon the filmmaker. He also condemns former Dutch MP Ayaan Hirsi Ali who was involved in writing the script for Submission. The imam asks Allah to make Ms Hirsi Ali go blind and give her cancer of the tongue and brain.

I am a Christian pastor and have been leading prayers in church for 30 years. We pray for the conversion of our enemies, and for God to frustrate the plans of our enemies. I have never heard a Christian prayer like the excerpt from this Muslim sermon. And I have listened to a lot of sermons and services in person, over radio, and some on television.

What is your state, and your pension fund, doing in the War against Islamic Supremacists? From Frank J. Gaffney, Jr., in the Jewish World Review.

Under Treasurer Steelman's leadership, the Missouri Investment Trust (MIT) has become the first public pension fund in the nation to divest from its portfolio the stocks of companies doing business with state-sponsors of terror like Iran, Syria, North Korea and Sudan. She has thereby ensured that the fund's beneficiaries are not unwittingly having their retirement savings invested in ways that are strategically counterproductive, morally reprehensible and even ill-advised from a financial point of view. (A study done for Ms. Steelman proved that the MIT would have performed better last year had it been terror-free than it was investing in companies partnering with our enemies.) She has also helped empower American investors to privatize the war for the Free World.