10/02: The Bitter Pill
Yes. I agree that Barack Obama's first press conference belied his promise of a new era of gracious statesmanship. He came out swinging--and did not hesitate to throw low blows and rabbit punches. His partisan assertions reviling Republicans were not just dubious; they were most of the time demonstrably false and embarrassingly patronizing.
If he had only been as generous with us as Iran, whom he called an "extraordinary people with an extraordinary history and traditions." On the other hand, the GOP appeared again and again as a gang of unrepentant politicians with bad Washington habits intent on dithering in the face of economic misery for the American people.
This is disappointing on several different levels.
However, I have heard too many conservatives today gleefully predicting that his honeymoon is over.
Here's the problem: at the core of the President's "unhelpful" tone is the following undeniable fact.
"First of all, when I hear that from folks who presided over a doubling of the national debt, then, you know, I just want them to not engage in some revisionist history. I inherited the deficit that we have right now and the economic crisis that we have right now."
This is the club with which Democrats will beat us for the rest of our lives--or until they do something worse (which, unfortunately, is a distinct possibility).
But until then--here is the set of facts that supersede all possible excuses. While we were running things, we ran up a ten trillion dollar national debt. Again, the bitter pill in all this is that the principal charge is absolutely undeniable. We really did it.
It is going to take decades to live down this ugly fact. Don't look for all to be forgiven in a few election cycles--much less a fortnight.
If he had only been as generous with us as Iran, whom he called an "extraordinary people with an extraordinary history and traditions." On the other hand, the GOP appeared again and again as a gang of unrepentant politicians with bad Washington habits intent on dithering in the face of economic misery for the American people.
This is disappointing on several different levels.
However, I have heard too many conservatives today gleefully predicting that his honeymoon is over.
Here's the problem: at the core of the President's "unhelpful" tone is the following undeniable fact.
"First of all, when I hear that from folks who presided over a doubling of the national debt, then, you know, I just want them to not engage in some revisionist history. I inherited the deficit that we have right now and the economic crisis that we have right now."
This is the club with which Democrats will beat us for the rest of our lives--or until they do something worse (which, unfortunately, is a distinct possibility).
But until then--here is the set of facts that supersede all possible excuses. While we were running things, we ran up a ten trillion dollar national debt. Again, the bitter pill in all this is that the principal charge is absolutely undeniable. We really did it.
It is going to take decades to live down this ugly fact. Don't look for all to be forgiven in a few election cycles--much less a fortnight.
10/02: More on Taking the Census
Category: Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
Last week I commented with suspicion on the move by Obama to bring the decadal census under the control of the White House. Here. Imagine if it were a Republican White House and the Census was reporting to Karl Rove. The MSM and fellow-travelers would be having a fit.
John Fund in a Wall Street Journal essay offers his thoughts.
Here are excerpts:
"There's only one reason to have that high level of White House involvement," a career professional at the Census Bureau tells me. "And it's called politics, not science."
. . .
Mr. Chapman worries about a revival of the effort led by minority groups after the 2000 Census to adjust the totals for states and cities using statistical sampling and computer models. In 1999, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Department of Commerce v. U.S. House that sampling could not be used to reapportion congressional seats. But it left open the possibility that sampling could be used to redraw political boundaries within the states.
Such a move would prove controversial. "Sampling potentially has the kind of margin of error an opinion poll has and the same subjectivity a voter-intent standard in a recount has," says Mr. Chapman.
Starting in 2000, the Census Bureau conducted three years of studies with the help of many outside statistical experts. According to then Census director Louis Kincannon, the Bureau concluded that "adjustment based on sampling didn't produce improved figures" and could damage Census credibility.
The reason? In theory, statisticians can identify general numbers of people missed in a head count. But it cannot then place those abstract "missing people" into specific neighborhoods, let alone blocks. And anyone could go door to door and find out such people don't exist. There can be other anomalies. "The adjusted numbers told us the head count had overcounted the number of Indians on reservations," Mr. Kincannon told me. "That made no sense."
The problem of counting minorities and the homeless has long been known. Census Bureau statisticians believe that a vigorous hard count, supplemented by adding in the names of actual people missed by head counters but still found in public records, is likely to lead to a far more defensible count than sampling-based adjustment.
John Fund in a Wall Street Journal essay offers his thoughts.
Here are excerpts:
"There's only one reason to have that high level of White House involvement," a career professional at the Census Bureau tells me. "And it's called politics, not science."
. . .
Mr. Chapman worries about a revival of the effort led by minority groups after the 2000 Census to adjust the totals for states and cities using statistical sampling and computer models. In 1999, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in Department of Commerce v. U.S. House that sampling could not be used to reapportion congressional seats. But it left open the possibility that sampling could be used to redraw political boundaries within the states.
Such a move would prove controversial. "Sampling potentially has the kind of margin of error an opinion poll has and the same subjectivity a voter-intent standard in a recount has," says Mr. Chapman.
Starting in 2000, the Census Bureau conducted three years of studies with the help of many outside statistical experts. According to then Census director Louis Kincannon, the Bureau concluded that "adjustment based on sampling didn't produce improved figures" and could damage Census credibility.
The reason? In theory, statisticians can identify general numbers of people missed in a head count. But it cannot then place those abstract "missing people" into specific neighborhoods, let alone blocks. And anyone could go door to door and find out such people don't exist. There can be other anomalies. "The adjusted numbers told us the head count had overcounted the number of Indians on reservations," Mr. Kincannon told me. "That made no sense."
The problem of counting minorities and the homeless has long been known. Census Bureau statisticians believe that a vigorous hard count, supplemented by adding in the names of actual people missed by head counters but still found in public records, is likely to lead to a far more defensible count than sampling-based adjustment.
09/02: Watching Obama Live
Note to Republicans:
To get an idea of where we are, try to wrap your mind around this calculation:
This fellow is incredibly likable and the most telegenic American politician since Reagan. He is smart and light on his feet. Even when he is patently disingenuous and/or obtuse, he is engaging and appealing.
Multiply these qualities by the fact that the media love him and are invested in his success.
What does it add up to? This is going to be a long and frustrating eight years for partisan opposition.
To get an idea of where we are, try to wrap your mind around this calculation:
This fellow is incredibly likable and the most telegenic American politician since Reagan. He is smart and light on his feet. Even when he is patently disingenuous and/or obtuse, he is engaging and appealing.
Multiply these qualities by the fact that the media love him and are invested in his success.
What does it add up to? This is going to be a long and frustrating eight years for partisan opposition.
I wrote this last May--but in honor of Lil Wayne and his big haul at the Grammys last night, I am reissuing this lament on the decline of pop culture:
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition and we'll all stay free!
Praise the Lord and swing into position!
Can't afford to sit around and wishin'
Praise the Lord we're all between perdition
and the deep blue sea!
Yes the sky pilot said it
You've got to give him credit
for a son - of - gun - of - a - gunner was he,
Shouting:
Praise the Lord we're on a mighty mission!
All aboard, we're not a - goin' fishin;
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition and we'll all stay free!
"Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition" relates the partly true story of a chaplain ("sky pilot") and his reaction to Pearl Harbor. The song was a huge pop hit for Kay Keyser and his orchestra in late 1942. For a revealing window into our current sensibilities, view this You Tube video (with the actual music as sarcastic background to some classic conservative baiting) and then read the accompanying discussion (from the beginning).
-----------
One other hit song from the era (#1 in 1943):
When The Lights Go On Again All Over The World
Note: In truth, unlike 1943, only a small slice of America is actually at war today (the rest of us are drafting off the heroic sacrifice of a select few stalwart souls). For all those Americans on their third and fourth tours of duty, and all the families waiting at home, our sincere thanks. This song is dedicated to you.
When the lights go on again all over the world
And the boys are home again all over the world
And rain or snow is all that may fall from the skies above
A kiss won't mean "goodbye" but "Hello to love"
When the lights go on again all over the world
And the ships will sail again all over the world
Then we'll have time for things like wedding rings
and free hearts will sing
When the lights go on again all over the world
One last thought, FYI: The number one song again this week (three weeks running) is “Lollipop” by Lil’ Wayne: “She she lick me Like a lollipop; She she lick me Like a lollipop; She she lick Like a lollipop; She lick Me Like a lollipop….”
Unfortunately there is much much more to “Lollipop.”
Remember the bad old days when we sang silly songs that assumed God was on our side in a just war against evil doers? Thank goodness we have elevated our culture above that brand of provincialism.
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition!
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition and we'll all stay free!
Praise the Lord and swing into position!
Can't afford to sit around and wishin'
Praise the Lord we're all between perdition
and the deep blue sea!
Yes the sky pilot said it
You've got to give him credit
for a son - of - gun - of - a - gunner was he,
Shouting:
Praise the Lord we're on a mighty mission!
All aboard, we're not a - goin' fishin;
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition and we'll all stay free!
"Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition" relates the partly true story of a chaplain ("sky pilot") and his reaction to Pearl Harbor. The song was a huge pop hit for Kay Keyser and his orchestra in late 1942. For a revealing window into our current sensibilities, view this You Tube video (with the actual music as sarcastic background to some classic conservative baiting) and then read the accompanying discussion (from the beginning).
-----------
One other hit song from the era (#1 in 1943):
When The Lights Go On Again All Over The World
Note: In truth, unlike 1943, only a small slice of America is actually at war today (the rest of us are drafting off the heroic sacrifice of a select few stalwart souls). For all those Americans on their third and fourth tours of duty, and all the families waiting at home, our sincere thanks. This song is dedicated to you.
When the lights go on again all over the world
And the boys are home again all over the world
And rain or snow is all that may fall from the skies above
A kiss won't mean "goodbye" but "Hello to love"
When the lights go on again all over the world
And the ships will sail again all over the world
Then we'll have time for things like wedding rings
and free hearts will sing
When the lights go on again all over the world
One last thought, FYI: The number one song again this week (three weeks running) is “Lollipop” by Lil’ Wayne: “She she lick me Like a lollipop; She she lick me Like a lollipop; She she lick Like a lollipop; She lick Me Like a lollipop….”
Unfortunately there is much much more to “Lollipop.”
Remember the bad old days when we sang silly songs that assumed God was on our side in a just war against evil doers? Thank goodness we have elevated our culture above that brand of provincialism.
Category: American Culture
Posted by: an okie gardener
Saxophonist David "Fathead" Newman died last month of pancreatic cancer. He was 75. Story here.
Jazz, R&B, Blues. He could play them all and bring them together into one package. Here are a few representative cuts.
Lonely Avenue
Another Kentucky Sunset
Cristo Redento[r]
Jazz, R&B, Blues. He could play them all and bring them together into one package. Here are a few representative cuts.
Lonely Avenue
Another Kentucky Sunset
Cristo Redento[r]
08/02: Some Perspective
The Good News: the events of the last week have united the GOP.
More Good News: the Republican Party will be back someday (probably sooner rather than later).
The Bad News: this development came at a frightful price.
What really happened to Barack Obama? Or, how did the era of bipartisanship, cool competence, and common-sense solutions come to a conclusion before we could even settle in our seats (one of my buddies was out getting popcorn and missed it completely).
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:
It was all a big lie. Obama never intended to be different. He is just another politician--more gifted than most, but at his core a prevaricator and soulless opportunist.
MORE LIKELY: he really believed a lot of his rhetoric--but a funny thing happened on the way to the forum.
He got rolled by his own party. The 380-pound veteran bull-rushed the Rookie. The sharks just inhaled the guppy.
We are reminded that five years ago, none of us had ever heard of this man. Five years ago he was a less-than-spectacular state senator whom most of the people in his own state did not know.
We are reminded that we convinced ourselves that this man was somehow so blessed with superhuman powers that he would overcome his deficiencies of experience.
Okay. We were wrong.
Side Note (and this is important): why were so many of us (Republicans) hoping against hope that this new man really was somebody totally different?
Simple. For those of us who can be honest with ourselves and objectively discuss our Grand Old Party, we know that we squandered the golden opportunity. After forty years of Democratic Party leadership based on fatally flawed assumptions, the American people came to see modern liberalism as a well-meaning ideal in the abstract but a recipe for disaster in practice.
And what did we do when our turn came? In general, we were even less responsible than our predecessors. Drunk with power and delusions of grandeur, we broke the bank. During our twelve-year window to right the course, we made absolutely no headway toward saving the nation that we love so dearly.
We are crushed. We are mortified. We are sick with disappointment in ourselves--and we lash out.
Some of us try to blame the media. Some of us blame the perfidy of the opposition. Some of us try to blame one another.
It was us. All of us. We did it to ourselves.
Okay, so some of us who understand how disastrous our missed opportunity really is were hoping against hope that the mysterious Obama was something different than a Nancy Pelosi Democrat. He said he was--and we desperately wanted to believe him. We were hoping that he could somehow slip in the Democratic backdoor and restore good sense to our national dialogue regardless of his party affiliation.
Looking back, none of that seems very logical right now.
The Bottom Line: Obama is NOT the Devil. We should still support our President. Let's don't go off the deep end and start spewing insane accusations and conspiracies. But those of us who have been clinging to a fantasy world for the past few months need to shake it off and get back in the game.
Okay. We are in a mess of our own making. We cannot count on any significant help from this president (at least not in the foreseeable future). Let's figure out where to go from here.
More Good News: the Republican Party will be back someday (probably sooner rather than later).
The Bad News: this development came at a frightful price.
What really happened to Barack Obama? Or, how did the era of bipartisanship, cool competence, and common-sense solutions come to a conclusion before we could even settle in our seats (one of my buddies was out getting popcorn and missed it completely).
TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS:
It was all a big lie. Obama never intended to be different. He is just another politician--more gifted than most, but at his core a prevaricator and soulless opportunist.
MORE LIKELY: he really believed a lot of his rhetoric--but a funny thing happened on the way to the forum.
He got rolled by his own party. The 380-pound veteran bull-rushed the Rookie. The sharks just inhaled the guppy.
We are reminded that five years ago, none of us had ever heard of this man. Five years ago he was a less-than-spectacular state senator whom most of the people in his own state did not know.
We are reminded that we convinced ourselves that this man was somehow so blessed with superhuman powers that he would overcome his deficiencies of experience.
Okay. We were wrong.
Side Note (and this is important): why were so many of us (Republicans) hoping against hope that this new man really was somebody totally different?
Simple. For those of us who can be honest with ourselves and objectively discuss our Grand Old Party, we know that we squandered the golden opportunity. After forty years of Democratic Party leadership based on fatally flawed assumptions, the American people came to see modern liberalism as a well-meaning ideal in the abstract but a recipe for disaster in practice.
And what did we do when our turn came? In general, we were even less responsible than our predecessors. Drunk with power and delusions of grandeur, we broke the bank. During our twelve-year window to right the course, we made absolutely no headway toward saving the nation that we love so dearly.
We are crushed. We are mortified. We are sick with disappointment in ourselves--and we lash out.
Some of us try to blame the media. Some of us blame the perfidy of the opposition. Some of us try to blame one another.
It was us. All of us. We did it to ourselves.
Okay, so some of us who understand how disastrous our missed opportunity really is were hoping against hope that the mysterious Obama was something different than a Nancy Pelosi Democrat. He said he was--and we desperately wanted to believe him. We were hoping that he could somehow slip in the Democratic backdoor and restore good sense to our national dialogue regardless of his party affiliation.
Looking back, none of that seems very logical right now.
The Bottom Line: Obama is NOT the Devil. We should still support our President. Let's don't go off the deep end and start spewing insane accusations and conspiracies. But those of us who have been clinging to a fantasy world for the past few months need to shake it off and get back in the game.
Okay. We are in a mess of our own making. We cannot count on any significant help from this president (at least not in the foreseeable future). Let's figure out where to go from here.
08/02: Jazz in the Night
Category: American Culture
Posted by: an okie gardener
It's late, in the midnight hour, and I'm listening to jazz. Here's my recent playlist.
Dave Holland.
Idris Muhammad and group.
John Coltrane and group.
Stan Getz & group.
Chet Baker & Paul Desmond
Chick Corea & RTF
Herbie Hancock, Joe Henderson, and the late Freddy Hubbard.
Dave Holland.
Idris Muhammad and group.
John Coltrane and group.
Stan Getz & group.
Chet Baker & Paul Desmond
Chick Corea & RTF
Herbie Hancock, Joe Henderson, and the late Freddy Hubbard.
07/02: Everyone Loves Allah
Category: Religion and History
Posted by: an okie gardener
These videos are a hoot, and also thoughtfully informed.
07/02: Small Town Friday Night
Category: American Culture
Posted by: an okie gardener
A week ago on Friday night my wife and I drove to a nearby town even smaller than our own. The Apache girls' and boys' basketball teams were to play Fletcher. We left early to have time for the chili supper beforehand.
Held in the Fletcher High School cafeteria, 8 local volunteer fire departments made and served chili. At the beginning of the line was a boot on a desk to receive donations for the departments. On the serving line were pots of chili, one from each fire department, with a basket in front of each. The idea was to get a sample from one pot, eat it, then return to the line to sample another pot, for as long as the stomach could hold out. You were then to put money into the basket in front of the pot you judged best.
I love chili. Simple in its basic form--meat, tomatoes, chili powder, perhaps beans--it lends itself to many variations. That night I sampled a batch that I think had cilantro in it, another I think used chorizo, two fairly sweet, and one with near-nuclear quantities of jalepano.
The supper was organized by Joe Dorman (D), our Oklahoma State Representative. His goal is to raise enough money for each Volunteer Fire Department Station in his District to have an electric generator so that one site in each community will have electricity during outages. Such as ice storms.
Later, during one of the games, he announced that each department would receive about $175 at a minimum (I assume from the division of the boot money) and the winning chili brought in around $430.
Communities working together in common purpose. Volunteers supported by voluntary donations. This is genuine conservatism. This is a large part of what makes America great.
Cardinal George Pell in this address speaks of social capital: the networks of men and women, families, and organizations, acting honestly and responsibly in service to the common good.
Amen, Brother Cardinal.
p.s., The Apache girls won and the boys lost.
Held in the Fletcher High School cafeteria, 8 local volunteer fire departments made and served chili. At the beginning of the line was a boot on a desk to receive donations for the departments. On the serving line were pots of chili, one from each fire department, with a basket in front of each. The idea was to get a sample from one pot, eat it, then return to the line to sample another pot, for as long as the stomach could hold out. You were then to put money into the basket in front of the pot you judged best.
I love chili. Simple in its basic form--meat, tomatoes, chili powder, perhaps beans--it lends itself to many variations. That night I sampled a batch that I think had cilantro in it, another I think used chorizo, two fairly sweet, and one with near-nuclear quantities of jalepano.
The supper was organized by Joe Dorman (D), our Oklahoma State Representative. His goal is to raise enough money for each Volunteer Fire Department Station in his District to have an electric generator so that one site in each community will have electricity during outages. Such as ice storms.
Later, during one of the games, he announced that each department would receive about $175 at a minimum (I assume from the division of the boot money) and the winning chili brought in around $430.
Communities working together in common purpose. Volunteers supported by voluntary donations. This is genuine conservatism. This is a large part of what makes America great.
Cardinal George Pell in this address speaks of social capital: the networks of men and women, families, and organizations, acting honestly and responsibly in service to the common good.
Amen, Brother Cardinal.
p.s., The Apache girls won and the boys lost.
07/02: More Mourning in America
Category: Politics
Posted by: A Waco Farmer
Quote from one of my favorite colleagues (an ultra insightful giant of a man, center-right in his politics):
"I feel like my man lost, but we still won the election."
I have happily shared that sentiment. Until now.
The Bad News: we finally lost the election this week.
"I feel like my man lost, but we still won the election."
I have happily shared that sentiment. Until now.
The Bad News: we finally lost the election this week.