Fred is in, and I see a glimmer of hope.

I have said many times, for a number of reasons, the Democrats own this election: 2008 is theirs to lose. While I stand by that assertion, I am less gloomy today than usual.

Why do I see a slim band of sunlight far off on the dark horizon?

Like the vast majority of Americans, I did not watch the Republican debate in New Hampshire on Wednesday night. However, I did watch Jay Leno.

Fred is in, and he looked good.

Joining the chorus of sour handicappers, I had worried earlier that Fred might have missed his window. But seeing and hearing him over the last few days does much to alleviate my anxiety.

Fred Thompson may not be the perfect conservative--but he does a great job of playing one on TV (much better than the other actors vying for the role).

Is he Ronald Reagan? No. But he is closer than I thought he might be. He is tall and tough and solid. When Jay Leno questioned his Iraq policy on hostile territory (a soundstage in Los Angeles, California), Fred dug in and stood tall and told the truth. No sugar coat. No stuttering. No excuses. Bravo.

Of course, the pundits are not convinced. Reliable fount of conventional wisdom, ABC analyst, George Stephanopoulos, speaking for the pack, opined on Good Morning America Thursday that Fred had three big problems getting in so late:

1. He leaves himself no room for error; he cannot make a mistake (perhaps George was thinking of something like enlisting criminals as important campaign financiers).

2. He has no money.

3. He arrives in a disappointingly second place.

Huh?

All that is completely wrong.

--It is not really very late. No one is following this race yet. While the Democratic canvass has a distinct character already, the GOP contest is still completely formless. To be sure, he is going to make some mistakes--but he will have ample opportunity to overcome them.

--He is millions of dollars ahead of the game with his Leno appearance alone. This guy is funny, media savvy and the camera loves him. Mitt Romney has a lot of money, but he needs every penny of it to market himself. Fred is a softer, easier sell. Last night I found myself laughing and nodding my head a lot. That brand of natural appeal is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

--Finally, second place is just fine for now. In fact, it may be a blessing. Emerging a few lengths behind the frontrunner in a horse race and charging hard for the wire is a much better narrative than arriving as the presumptive nominee.

But there are some remaining worries:

Health. Today Hugh Hewitt raised the nagging cancer question (here). Ironically, I was discussing Thompson with an unabashed booster a few days ago when the Fred fan worried that his candidate looked sickly. This is a serious question. Paul Tsongas?

Resilience. How will Fred respond to the barrage of pointed scrutiny and animosity awaiting him. Can Fred keep his cool under the intense pressure of an unfriendly mainstream media? We'll see.

Background. What is in Fred's past? With certainty, the opposition will manufacture a series of phony and/or exaggerated scandals and rumors of wrongdoing. If he is clean as a whistle, he will take a tremendous beating. If he is dirty at all, the mainstream media and Democratic war machine will crucify him.

Having said that, we may have a player here. For the first time in a long time, I've got that delicious feeling that we might have a chance.