Why will Barack Obama offer the veep to Virginia governor, Tim Kaine?

Because it is the smartest play, and Team Obama always makes the smartest play.

Right now, Republicans all over the globe are praying earnestly that Candidate Obama will choose Joe Biden as his running mate. Why? Biden is a gaffe-prone bloviator and a thirty-year Washington insider.

But it gets even worse than that.

If Obama chooses Biden, we will read the move as an admission that he is deficient in foreign policy.

Why is Biden suddenly viable? Because the Democratic Party wise men, in a minor panic, seem suddenly mindful that a late-breaking realization among the American voting public that we live in a dangerous world might make the experienced Republican warrior infinitely more attractive.

What to do?

Put Joe Biden on the ticket.

Wrong Move! Why?

1. Americans do not care about foreign policy, actually. No one is talking about Russia and Georgia. Bringing attention to specific international challenges does not help Obama--rather, it damages him. He needs to keep it simple on foreign affairs. "Bush is bad. Bush gets us into bad wars. McCain is even worse."

2. No one outside of political junkies have ever heard of Joe Biden. Even if a veep could help you on foreign policy, Joe BIden is not Colin Powell (from ten years ago) or Sam Nunn (from fifteen years ago) or Henry Jackson (from thirty years ago). Biden is not an impact player. He is famous inside the Beltway, but a near compete unknown to the vast majority of Americans.

An Aside: Sam Nunn today is not Sam Nunn from fifteen years ago either.

3. Biden has a big mouth and an uncontrollable ego.

If Biden gets the nod, I promise to eat my hat (as I jump for joy). Joe Biden is more likely a "secretary of state in waiting" during this campaign.

Why Tim Kaine?

He is young, dynamic, from outside of Washington, a sitting governor, and he might be able to deliver his home state of Virginia.

Even if Republicans held on to VA, they would need to divert copious amounts of campaign cash to hold VA. Tim Kaine is a Republican strategists nightmare. GOP insiders all over America have their hands clasped together, every head bowed, every eye closed, fervently praying: "please, Lord; not Tim Kaine."