Category: Politics
Posted by: A Waco Farmer
I am extremely reluctant to comment on the current Gore family crisis. I am a father of two sons, and my heart goes out to Al and Tipper. There But for the Grace of God go I. With all sincerity, I wish the Gores the best. Politics aside, I ask God to bless the Gore family with health, security and happiness in abundance.
However, by his own design, Al Gore is a crucial figure in our national political culture. He has inserted himself in to the very fabric of our national conversation. Why is the arrest of Al Gore III in play? The incident speaks to the cloud of hypocrisy and artificiality (and perhaps rotten luck) that perpetually swirls around the Gore campaigns.
Some brief comments:
The best laid schemes of Mice and Men, gang aft agley. Someone in the Gore camp was media savvy enough to arrange for Al Gore III to drive a hybrid Toyota Prius. However, running your environmentally friendly Prius at 100 miles-per-hour on the freeways of Southern California during the wee hours of the morning while smoking marijuana negates a multitude of forethought and pre-planning on the part of your dad's PR staff.
Reaping what he sowed? We may never know who made the decision, on the eve of Election Day 2000, to release the news that twenty-four years earlier, on a July 4th weekend in 1976, the Kennebunkport Police Department arrested a thirty-year-old George Bush for operating his vehicle under the influence of alcohol. However, the irony (or perhaps the karma) of Al Gore's current embarrassment on the eve of his big moment seems thick.
Previous Bosque Boys musings on the "Strange Career of Al Gore" here.
However, by his own design, Al Gore is a crucial figure in our national political culture. He has inserted himself in to the very fabric of our national conversation. Why is the arrest of Al Gore III in play? The incident speaks to the cloud of hypocrisy and artificiality (and perhaps rotten luck) that perpetually swirls around the Gore campaigns.
Some brief comments:
The best laid schemes of Mice and Men, gang aft agley. Someone in the Gore camp was media savvy enough to arrange for Al Gore III to drive a hybrid Toyota Prius. However, running your environmentally friendly Prius at 100 miles-per-hour on the freeways of Southern California during the wee hours of the morning while smoking marijuana negates a multitude of forethought and pre-planning on the part of your dad's PR staff.
Reaping what he sowed? We may never know who made the decision, on the eve of Election Day 2000, to release the news that twenty-four years earlier, on a July 4th weekend in 1976, the Kennebunkport Police Department arrested a thirty-year-old George Bush for operating his vehicle under the influence of alcohol. However, the irony (or perhaps the karma) of Al Gore's current embarrassment on the eve of his big moment seems thick.
Previous Bosque Boys musings on the "Strange Career of Al Gore" here.
Some quick thoughts in re the commutation:
1. There are real downsides to this action:
--Too Much Mercy? As the Washington Post, an undeniably moderate voice throughout this entire imbroglio, opined this morning,
"commut[ing] the entire prison sentence sends the wrong message about the seriousness of that offense." Perhaps the President was right that the sentence was excessive, the probation office recommended significantly less time, but as the Post points out, the President "moved from excessive to zero" (editorial in full here).
--Two Wrongs Don't Make A Right. One can reasonably argue that this commutation makes Libby's punishment more commensurate with other high profile cases, namely President Clinton and former National Security Advisor Sandy Berger. But every schoolboy knows the chant: "two wrongs don't make right." Either you are for the rule of law--or you are not. This kind of nuanced thinking on law and order, crime and punishment hurts Republicans--not so much with the electorate--but with our own self image. This process does painful internal damage to conservatives.
--The Lingering Question. And for as long as anybody cares to think or write about this story, we will face this question: was the commutation offered to silence a potentially destructive witness for the prosecution? Was this quid pro quo? Was this part of cover-up that went all the way to the Oval Office?
2. An Observation: This President will never win with the media. Two weeks ago, I took issue with the banal speculation that President Bush would not pardon "Scooter" Libby because of the intense political fallout, which would emanate from such a move.
My point then: how can anyone say this President fears a firestorm?
You may review that post here.
Today the common storyline asserts that President Bush granted clemency because he feared that his remaining supporters might desert him, if he let Libby go to jail.
As I said two weeks ago, riding to the aid of Libby is good politics--it will temporarily buck up his flagging base a bit--but, again, who can say with a straight face that this President operates with that brand of political acumen or calculation?
But my point is: "damned if you do, damned if you don't." It is either Bush doesn't have the grit to save his loyal subordinate for fear of political backlash or Bush intercedes on behalf of his loyal minion to stave off political backlash. Pick your poison.
3. We were promised the "Paris Hilton talking points"--and we have them. Everybody from Dick Durbin to Chris Mathews wants to compare Scooter Libby to Paris Hilton. It is a ridiculous analogy. Conservatives prefer Clinton and Berger as points of reference, but that brings us back to "two wrongs..." (see above).
4. Ramifications overblown. George Stephanopoulos on GMA this morning predicted a potential backlash for the President and Republican candidates for president. He noted that already Democratic candidates are making hay of this Executive Order, which polls indicate the American people disapprove of in large numbers.
I disagree wholeheartedly for two reasons:
--I am not convinced that this is a story that will penetrate the consciousness of the American people. No matter how many times Democratic politicians and pundits bring up Paris Hilton, the sad truth is that only a fraction of the population who followed the Hilton story can even identify Scooter Libby.
--More importantly, I will bet the house right now on the certainty that Mrs. Clinton will not run a presidential campaign that centers around presidential pardons and perjured testimony before a grand jury.
1. There are real downsides to this action:
--Too Much Mercy? As the Washington Post, an undeniably moderate voice throughout this entire imbroglio, opined this morning,
"commut[ing] the entire prison sentence sends the wrong message about the seriousness of that offense." Perhaps the President was right that the sentence was excessive, the probation office recommended significantly less time, but as the Post points out, the President "moved from excessive to zero" (editorial in full here).
--Two Wrongs Don't Make A Right. One can reasonably argue that this commutation makes Libby's punishment more commensurate with other high profile cases, namely President Clinton and former National Security Advisor Sandy Berger. But every schoolboy knows the chant: "two wrongs don't make right." Either you are for the rule of law--or you are not. This kind of nuanced thinking on law and order, crime and punishment hurts Republicans--not so much with the electorate--but with our own self image. This process does painful internal damage to conservatives.
--The Lingering Question. And for as long as anybody cares to think or write about this story, we will face this question: was the commutation offered to silence a potentially destructive witness for the prosecution? Was this quid pro quo? Was this part of cover-up that went all the way to the Oval Office?
2. An Observation: This President will never win with the media. Two weeks ago, I took issue with the banal speculation that President Bush would not pardon "Scooter" Libby because of the intense political fallout, which would emanate from such a move.
My point then: how can anyone say this President fears a firestorm?
You may review that post here.
Today the common storyline asserts that President Bush granted clemency because he feared that his remaining supporters might desert him, if he let Libby go to jail.
As I said two weeks ago, riding to the aid of Libby is good politics--it will temporarily buck up his flagging base a bit--but, again, who can say with a straight face that this President operates with that brand of political acumen or calculation?
But my point is: "damned if you do, damned if you don't." It is either Bush doesn't have the grit to save his loyal subordinate for fear of political backlash or Bush intercedes on behalf of his loyal minion to stave off political backlash. Pick your poison.
3. We were promised the "Paris Hilton talking points"--and we have them. Everybody from Dick Durbin to Chris Mathews wants to compare Scooter Libby to Paris Hilton. It is a ridiculous analogy. Conservatives prefer Clinton and Berger as points of reference, but that brings us back to "two wrongs..." (see above).
4. Ramifications overblown. George Stephanopoulos on GMA this morning predicted a potential backlash for the President and Republican candidates for president. He noted that already Democratic candidates are making hay of this Executive Order, which polls indicate the American people disapprove of in large numbers.
I disagree wholeheartedly for two reasons:
--I am not convinced that this is a story that will penetrate the consciousness of the American people. No matter how many times Democratic politicians and pundits bring up Paris Hilton, the sad truth is that only a fraction of the population who followed the Hilton story can even identify Scooter Libby.
--More importantly, I will bet the house right now on the certainty that Mrs. Clinton will not run a presidential campaign that centers around presidential pardons and perjured testimony before a grand jury.
Quoting the President (excerpted):
"Critics of the [Plame] investigation have argued that a special counsel should not have been appointed, nor should the investigation have been pursued after the Justice Department learned who leaked Ms. Plame's name to columnist Robert Novak.
"Furthermore, the critics point out that neither Mr. Libby nor anyone else has been charged with violating the Intelligence Identities Protection Act or the Espionage Act, which were the original subjects of the investigation.
"Finally, critics say the punishment does not fit the crime: Mr. Libby was a first-time offender with years of exceptional public service and was handed a harsh sentence based in part on allegations never presented to the jury."
On the other hand...
"[A] jury of citizens weighed all the evidence and listened to all the testimony and found Mr. Libby guilty of perjury and obstructing justice.
"[Critical observers] argue, correctly, that our entire system of justice relies on people telling the truth. And if a person does not tell the truth, particularly if he serves in government and holds the public trust, he must be held accountable. They say that had Mr. Libby only told the truth, he would have never been indicted in the first place."
A Solomonic Compromise.
"Mr. Libby was sentenced to thirty months of prison, two years of probation, and a $250,000 fine. In making the sentencing decision, the district court rejected the advice of the probation office, which recommended a lesser sentence and the consideration of factors that could have led to a sentence of home confinement or probation.
"I respect the jury's verdict. But I have concluded that the prison sentence given to Mr. Libby is excessive. Therefore, I am commuting the portion of Mr. Libby's sentence that required him to spend thirty months in prison.
"My decision to commute his prison sentence leaves in place a harsh punishment for Mr. Libby [which has inflicted great damage to his reputation and his family].
"He will remain on probation. The significant fines imposed by the judge will remain in effect. The consequences of his felony conviction on his former life as a lawyer, public servant, and private citizen will be long-lasting.
"The Constitution gives the President the power of clemency to be used when he deems it to be warranted. It is my judgment that a commutation of the prison term in Mr. Libby's case is an appropriate exercise of this power."
Statement by the President in full here.
My Analysis: Not an easy call, but the President has it right this time.
"Critics of the [Plame] investigation have argued that a special counsel should not have been appointed, nor should the investigation have been pursued after the Justice Department learned who leaked Ms. Plame's name to columnist Robert Novak.
"Furthermore, the critics point out that neither Mr. Libby nor anyone else has been charged with violating the Intelligence Identities Protection Act or the Espionage Act, which were the original subjects of the investigation.
"Finally, critics say the punishment does not fit the crime: Mr. Libby was a first-time offender with years of exceptional public service and was handed a harsh sentence based in part on allegations never presented to the jury."
On the other hand...
"[A] jury of citizens weighed all the evidence and listened to all the testimony and found Mr. Libby guilty of perjury and obstructing justice.
"[Critical observers] argue, correctly, that our entire system of justice relies on people telling the truth. And if a person does not tell the truth, particularly if he serves in government and holds the public trust, he must be held accountable. They say that had Mr. Libby only told the truth, he would have never been indicted in the first place."
A Solomonic Compromise.
"Mr. Libby was sentenced to thirty months of prison, two years of probation, and a $250,000 fine. In making the sentencing decision, the district court rejected the advice of the probation office, which recommended a lesser sentence and the consideration of factors that could have led to a sentence of home confinement or probation.
"I respect the jury's verdict. But I have concluded that the prison sentence given to Mr. Libby is excessive. Therefore, I am commuting the portion of Mr. Libby's sentence that required him to spend thirty months in prison.
"My decision to commute his prison sentence leaves in place a harsh punishment for Mr. Libby [which has inflicted great damage to his reputation and his family].
"He will remain on probation. The significant fines imposed by the judge will remain in effect. The consequences of his felony conviction on his former life as a lawyer, public servant, and private citizen will be long-lasting.
"The Constitution gives the President the power of clemency to be used when he deems it to be warranted. It is my judgment that a commutation of the prison term in Mr. Libby's case is an appropriate exercise of this power."
Statement by the President in full here.
My Analysis: Not an easy call, but the President has it right this time.
29/06: Podhoretz: Right Again
Category: Politics
Posted by: A Waco Farmer
John Podhoretz writes today:
"[T]he parlous decision to revive the dead immigration bill and fight for it, only to see it go down to defeat again, was an act of political suicide from which this White House will not recover."
and:
"[A]s someone out of step with my fellow conservatives on the issue, as someone with a very liberal view of immigration, including illegal immigration...the more I read about the bill, the more it was clear to me it was an unholy mess and that the nation would be far better off without it."
With regret, I agree wholeheartedly with both assertions.
Read the full Podhoretz piece here.
"[T]he parlous decision to revive the dead immigration bill and fight for it, only to see it go down to defeat again, was an act of political suicide from which this White House will not recover."
and:
"[A]s someone out of step with my fellow conservatives on the issue, as someone with a very liberal view of immigration, including illegal immigration...the more I read about the bill, the more it was clear to me it was an unholy mess and that the nation would be far better off without it."
With regret, I agree wholeheartedly with both assertions.
Read the full Podhoretz piece here.
14/06: Bush & Libby: Why Not?
Category: Politics
Posted by: A Waco Farmer
From the Washington Post:
Judge Won't Delay Libby's Prison Term for Appeal
"A federal judge today ordered I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby to report to prison within weeks to begin serving a 30-month sentence ...."
"U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton rejected defense attorneys' request to allow Libby to remain free on bond while they appeal his conviction for perjury and obstructing justice."
"Walton...said he disagreed with defense attorneys' contention that Libby's trial had generated a series of close legal questions and judicial rulings that might well be reversed by higher courts."
Full story here.
Already today, I have heard repeatedly on several different media outlets this chestnut of conventional wisdom/analysis/punditry/blather:
"President Bush will not pardon Libby because the political fallout will be too intense."
WHAT!?! Are you kidding?
This is the same George Bush who refuses to budge on Iraq against the backdrop of a disapproval rating in the mid-60s; he continues to support Alberto Gonzales in the face of increasingly vocal consternation; and he intends to resubmit the bone-crushingly divisive and destructive (to Republicans) comprehensive immigration reform.
But, we are told that he is skittish about some bad press over a Libby pardon?
That is completely ridiculous. Seriously, even if you weren't the most stubborn person on the planet, how much lower can any president expect to dip than 29 percent approval?
In truth, a Libby pardon would bring his numbers back up. Bush's steep decline is the result of GOP anger. A Libby pardon, and the ensuing firestorm among the mainstream media and Democrats in Congress, would re-energize the formerly faithful.
But I predict he will not pardon Libby. Why won't he do it?
My Speculation: it is mostly a desire to not be Clinton. Of all the things that have gone to hell for Bush, he still sees himself as superior to his predecessor in terms of modeling virtuous behavior.
In Bush's view, pardons and vitriolic attacks and procedural assaults on the justice system are Clintonesque. I am afraid Bush is going to let Scooter fry--rather than compromise this principle.
Of course, it is easier to hold to your principles when other people are going to jail. I would not be shocked if the President found a way to alleviate Libby's suffering (commutation has been floated as a moderate measure). On the other hand, I would be surprised if Bush pardoned Libby Clinton style.
Judge Won't Delay Libby's Prison Term for Appeal
"A federal judge today ordered I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby to report to prison within weeks to begin serving a 30-month sentence ...."
"U.S. District Judge Reggie B. Walton rejected defense attorneys' request to allow Libby to remain free on bond while they appeal his conviction for perjury and obstructing justice."
"Walton...said he disagreed with defense attorneys' contention that Libby's trial had generated a series of close legal questions and judicial rulings that might well be reversed by higher courts."
Full story here.
Already today, I have heard repeatedly on several different media outlets this chestnut of conventional wisdom/analysis/punditry/blather:
"President Bush will not pardon Libby because the political fallout will be too intense."
WHAT!?! Are you kidding?
This is the same George Bush who refuses to budge on Iraq against the backdrop of a disapproval rating in the mid-60s; he continues to support Alberto Gonzales in the face of increasingly vocal consternation; and he intends to resubmit the bone-crushingly divisive and destructive (to Republicans) comprehensive immigration reform.
But, we are told that he is skittish about some bad press over a Libby pardon?
That is completely ridiculous. Seriously, even if you weren't the most stubborn person on the planet, how much lower can any president expect to dip than 29 percent approval?
In truth, a Libby pardon would bring his numbers back up. Bush's steep decline is the result of GOP anger. A Libby pardon, and the ensuing firestorm among the mainstream media and Democrats in Congress, would re-energize the formerly faithful.
But I predict he will not pardon Libby. Why won't he do it?
My Speculation: it is mostly a desire to not be Clinton. Of all the things that have gone to hell for Bush, he still sees himself as superior to his predecessor in terms of modeling virtuous behavior.
In Bush's view, pardons and vitriolic attacks and procedural assaults on the justice system are Clintonesque. I am afraid Bush is going to let Scooter fry--rather than compromise this principle.
Of course, it is easier to hold to your principles when other people are going to jail. I would not be shocked if the President found a way to alleviate Libby's suffering (commutation has been floated as a moderate measure). On the other hand, I would be surprised if Bush pardoned Libby Clinton style.
My Mantra for Campaign 2008: Nobody Knows Anything.
On the other hand, George Will knows more about politics than most, and he is smart enough to ask intelligent questions. Will writes today in Newsweek to caution against Thompson mania, reminding us that we still have much to discover about the stately and celebrated senator from Tennessee.
Anyhow, Will offers several points and rhetorical flourishes worth noting:
1. Some say he is the Republicans' Rorschach test: They all see in him what they crave. Or he might be the Republicans' dot-com bubble, the result of restless political investors seeking value that the untutored eye might not discern and that might be difficult to quantify but which the investors are sure must be there, somewhere, somehow.
A bit off the subject, but this borrowed gem applied to Ronald Reagan and his recent posthumous rebirth as a near-great president with gravitas is priceless and absolutely true:
2. "The four stages of the highbrow treatment: first, he was derided, then ignored, then accepted, then discovered."
And then this paragraph in which Will agrees with my analysis from a while back is perhaps my favorite (and, truth be known, a compelling reason for this post; if you don't toot your own horn--who's gonna do it?):
3. When the resolutely uncharming John McCain ran in 2000, only four of his Senate colleagues supported him. Thompson was one. Today Thompson is John McCain without McCain's heroism, Vesuvian temper and support for the current immigration legislation. Although Thompson presents himself as a strict constitutionalist and an advocate of limited government, he voted for, and still supports, the McCain-Feingold law, which empowers the government to regulate the quantity, content and timing of speech about government.
Read the full version of Will here.
Don't get me wrong. I still like Fred and remain fairly optimistic. But Will makes an important point. Nobody Knows Anything.
On the other hand, George Will knows more about politics than most, and he is smart enough to ask intelligent questions. Will writes today in Newsweek to caution against Thompson mania, reminding us that we still have much to discover about the stately and celebrated senator from Tennessee.
Anyhow, Will offers several points and rhetorical flourishes worth noting:
1. Some say he is the Republicans' Rorschach test: They all see in him what they crave. Or he might be the Republicans' dot-com bubble, the result of restless political investors seeking value that the untutored eye might not discern and that might be difficult to quantify but which the investors are sure must be there, somewhere, somehow.
A bit off the subject, but this borrowed gem applied to Ronald Reagan and his recent posthumous rebirth as a near-great president with gravitas is priceless and absolutely true:
2. "The four stages of the highbrow treatment: first, he was derided, then ignored, then accepted, then discovered."
And then this paragraph in which Will agrees with my analysis from a while back is perhaps my favorite (and, truth be known, a compelling reason for this post; if you don't toot your own horn--who's gonna do it?):
3. When the resolutely uncharming John McCain ran in 2000, only four of his Senate colleagues supported him. Thompson was one. Today Thompson is John McCain without McCain's heroism, Vesuvian temper and support for the current immigration legislation. Although Thompson presents himself as a strict constitutionalist and an advocate of limited government, he voted for, and still supports, the McCain-Feingold law, which empowers the government to regulate the quantity, content and timing of speech about government.
Read the full version of Will here.
Don't get me wrong. I still like Fred and remain fairly optimistic. But Will makes an important point. Nobody Knows Anything.
10/06: Great Political Quotes
Category: Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
I cannot vouch for these, I can only report that they were expressed on the floor at our national denominational meeting this week:
"When I die, I want to be buried in Chicago so I can remain politically active." Charlie Rangel.
"Good government is no substitute for self-government." Gandhi.
"When I die, I want to be buried in Chicago so I can remain politically active." Charlie Rangel.
"Good government is no substitute for self-government." Gandhi.
10/06: As Goes Iowa . . .
Some on-the-ground reporting. From a conversation with a small group of Iowa Dems, including an elected official active in the party at the state level.
They had the following thoughts: (1)Anyone the Democrats nominate in 08 can beat the Republican candidate, except Hillary. So, Hillary must not be nominated. (2)When the dust clears Edwards will be the strongest candidate for the Democrats to put forward.
But, as Farmer comments, repeating his 2008 Mantra: Nobody Knows Anything.
They had the following thoughts: (1)Anyone the Democrats nominate in 08 can beat the Republican candidate, except Hillary. So, Hillary must not be nominated. (2)When the dust clears Edwards will be the strongest candidate for the Democrats to put forward.
But, as Farmer comments, repeating his 2008 Mantra: Nobody Knows Anything.
10/06: As Goes Illinois . . .
I am blogging this week from the General Synod meeting of the Reformed Church in America. We have been kept so busy that my production is low, but maybe tonight which they have promised will not last until 11pm.
At supper last night I talked politics with a layman from Illinois, a black elder from south of Chicago. I asked him about excitement for the current presidential candidates. He reported that he has not seen much excitement for any of the Republican candidates. His guess is that Rudy might have the most support, but that many are troubled at the thought of putting a man with his personal baggage (he's on his third wife) into the White House. He also reported that there has been some talk about "that Mormon candidate." (Romney)
On the Democrat side, he stated that Obama has generated a lot of excitement. He has heard Barak speak in person and compares his oratorical skills to those of MLK. And, he said that Barak mesmerizes crowds in Chicago and in the south counties of the state. But, he is not sure if Obama can beat Hillary for Illinois delegates, since she has lots of support as well. Edwards has not lit any fires of support.
These are, of course, the opinions of one man. But, a man well-connected in his community and politically aware.
At supper last night I talked politics with a layman from Illinois, a black elder from south of Chicago. I asked him about excitement for the current presidential candidates. He reported that he has not seen much excitement for any of the Republican candidates. His guess is that Rudy might have the most support, but that many are troubled at the thought of putting a man with his personal baggage (he's on his third wife) into the White House. He also reported that there has been some talk about "that Mormon candidate." (Romney)
On the Democrat side, he stated that Obama has generated a lot of excitement. He has heard Barak speak in person and compares his oratorical skills to those of MLK. And, he said that Barak mesmerizes crowds in Chicago and in the south counties of the state. But, he is not sure if Obama can beat Hillary for Illinois delegates, since she has lots of support as well. Edwards has not lit any fires of support.
These are, of course, the opinions of one man. But, a man well-connected in his community and politically aware.
Category: Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
Gaypatriot has this update on the woes of the Log Cabin Republicans (say it loud, I'm a gay Republican and I'm proud).
At a guess, I would think that Rudy might be the candidate to benefit most from their efforts, if they were able to act.
At a guess, I would think that Rudy might be the candidate to benefit most from their efforts, if they were able to act.
