Over the Thanksgiving weekend I spoke with an Iowa political officeholder and Democrat. This person and spouse will caucus for Edwards, as they did in 04.

Some observations:

Clinton and Obama have support, but may not have snowy-night depth of commitment. (In the Iowa caucuses, you must show up in someone's living room or community building on the appointed night in order to caucus. Weather can play a factor. Snow, ice, twenty below with a wind, will test the heartfelt commitment of a caucus-goer.) My source thought Clinton's supporters were more the products of organization and money, not genuine enthusiasm; and that Obama's supporters tended to be young and might not actually show up in the strength of their numbers. Conclusion: if the weather is good and the night mild, Clinton and Obama probably will fight it out for the Iowa win. If the weather is bad, then Edwards.

Speaking of Republicans. My source thinks that the Romney and Guiliani probably are leading and may win on a pleasant evening. In case of bad weather, then Huckabee. The reasoning is the same as for Clinton v. Edwards above.

btw, in and otherwise sane and stable person, my source's depth of Bush-hatred is troubling