From Peter Baker and Robin Wright in the Washington Post, Tuesday, December 4, 2007 (Page A01):

A Blow to Bush's Tehran Policy

"President Bush got the world's attention this fall when he warned that a nuclear-armed Iran might lead to World War III. But his stark warning came at least a month or two after he had first been told about fresh indications that Iran had actually halted its nuclear weapons program.

"The new intelligence report [National Intelligence Estimate] released yesterday not only undercut the administration's alarming rhetoric over Iran's nuclear ambitions but could also throttle Bush's effort to ratchet up international sanctions and take off the table the possibility of preemptive military action before the end of his presidency."

What does all this mean?

1. Let me borrow a phrase from myself: Nobody Knows Anything. I use that as my mantra and caveat in handicapping the upcoming presidential primaries. But my record for picking winners in Iowa and New Hampshire over the last twenty years is much more impressive than the intelligence community's demonstrated ability to give us reliable information concerning weapons of mass destruction in the hands of our enemies. This particular NIE and four dollars will buy you a tasty cup of coffee in your local Starbucks.

2. Assuming the report is right, however, and the Iranians put the quietus on their program in 2003, is there anything significant about that moment in history? I think so. The Iranians were properly intimidated by American military prowess and resolve. The sentiment of the hour: "Oh sh-t! This SOB is crazy." If the report is right, it is extremely instructive concerning the efficacy of George Bush's foreign policy in 2003.

3. Assuming the report is right, the Iranians were working on a nuclear weapons program up until 2003. This means they might decide to resume the program at any time.

4. Assuming the report is right, and the Iranians halted the weapons version of their nuclear program as a result of US intimidation in 2003, it is reasonable to assume that they are a lot less fearful of the United States today. With the clock running down on Bush, and the nation divided, I am extremely reluctant to celebrate this report as an "end to the threat." I am with the Israeli's on this one. We need to be vigilant.

5. As for Peter Baker's speculation that military action is off the table, I agree. But I have said that for more than a year. Military action is off the table because of the Iraq situation. In fact, this report gives the Bush administration some cover to do nothing militarily concerning Iran--a choice for which they had no other realistic option.