In response to my post, "Obama is in Trouble," in which I suggested that the 527s would have a field day with Barack's incendiary Black Nationalist pastor, this word of caution from the

Swabian Prince:

I agree that he's in trouble, though I am not sure that it will be that easy for the issue to be raised in a general election, even by 527s. November is an eternity away--even the convention seems an eternity away--and eventually the subject will be exhausted. Long before then, people will decide they have heard enough about it, and for those who raise it again, there could be a fierce backlash in store. The OJ fiasco made it clear that almost anything can happen in this country when race is involved or can be plausibly invoked. And Chappaquiddick made it clear that even the most ruinous story can be rendered harmless by the passage of time and careful management, if the subject of the story has the correct political orientation and the media are so disposed.

But what I most worry about is the fact that, if THIS is the thing that brings Obama's candidacy down, it will sit very, very poorly with African Americans across the board. It may in the long run lead to some good effects, such as African Americans' moving away from voting as a bloc for Democratic candidates. But it could also lead to an enormous collective rage, which could in turn be a huge setback to racial harmony in this country.

And then the search will be on to supply an appropriately right-of-center target for that rage. I think that McCain, whatever his motives, has been right to leave the subject alone, so that when the backlash comes, he can avoid being a target of it. But the Clintons will try their best to make the Republicans the ones at fault. And crazy as it sounds, it could work, because think of who is carrying the ball on this issue right now--Limbaugh and Hannity and talk radio, etc.

At the moment the Clinton campaign has, in effect, farmed out its surrogacy to its ideological opponents. It will not be hard to turn and disavow them, when the time comes, and let them be the ones to bear the stain (just as Vietnam somehow became "Nixon's war"). Especially since African American voters are already so profoundly disposed to dislike and distrust conservatives and Republicans.

So this could still play out in ways that will hurt Republicans in what is otherwise looking like a pro-Democratic year. I am not predicting that, only suggesting it as a real possibility. In the end, if HRC gets the nomination, there are a lot of people who will have to be brought back on board. Demonizing the Republicans usually works.
~~Swabian Prince


And this: One other note from another astute friend of the Bosque Boys, Steffen Schmidt, aka Dr. Politics, who believes that this imbroglio "gives Mrs. Clinton a second wind," but he also judiciously advises that the breaking "stock market and financial crisis is going to knock Hill and Barack off the front pages" for a while.