From the Politico (April 30):

"Capitol Hill insiders say the battle for congressional superdelegates is over, and one Senate supporter of Barack Obama is hinting strongly that he has prevailed over Hillary Rodham Clinton."

Read a little further into the story and one will find that this quasi-breathless lead comes from well-known party sage with no ax to grind (NOT), Senator Claire McCaskill, who, in fact, has a lot riding on an Obama victory.

Ironically, the headline for this story is less splashy and much more informative: "Obama backer predicts victory in Hill war."

One of my smart friends asked today: "Is it Over?"

Another friend in the know confirmed that this story is making the rounds and added on the rumor that "had Obama won PA, [these stealth Obama-supporting superdelegates] would have declared."

MY QUESTION: how much credence do we give these insider counts and/or even the public declarations concerning committed superdelegates?

That is, what are these “committed” delegates really committed to?

These are all unofficial "handshake agreements" (sans the handshaking). You stand up in front of a TV camera and say, "based on my love for country and my desire to ensure a secure future for my young children, I am taking the politically courageous step of endorsing (insert name of person here whom you think is most likely to win)."

But what's to stop the same politician, two weeks or two months from now, from standing up in front of a TV camera and saying, "based on new information, my love of country, and my dedication to a secure future, I am taking the politically courageous step of changing my mind and embracing (insert here the name of the person whom you now think most likely to win)."

I suspect these committed superdelegates are about as committed to Barack Obama as New Jersey Democrats were to Robert Torricelli in September 2002. They are totally and irrevocably committed unless something comes along to shake their commitment.

As for the math, are these numbers driven by the immutable laws of Newtonian physics? Or are they more akin to the Heisenberg Principle, in which the unfolding process of discovery itself creates a level of uncertainty?