28/02: Continued Resistance to McCain
Category: Politics
Posted by: A Waco Farmer
Guest Blog: Tocqueville
I am interested to see Hugh Hewitt agreeing with me that John McCain is toast and for the reasons Hewitt cites:
The GOP base has a trust issue with McCain, one that flows from the 2000 campaign, McCain-Feingold, the Gang of 14, the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, the September 2006 derailing of the Republican end-game strategy.
McCain is fading, and not because of his age or energy level, but because the GOP electorate has to absolutely believe that the next president will be as committed to victory as Bush has been. Senator McCain's avoidance of new media has been reinforcing the impression that he is unwilling to provide the assurances he needs to in order to regain the trust he has repeatedly broken with the GOP electorate over the years. There is time to turn that around, but Senator McCain is not making the effort, an effort that would begin by a relentless courting of the base rather than the Hardball/Meet The Press audience. Every week that Senator McCain delays launching that effort is a week in which the mayor and the governor gather more pledges and momentum. The big three could be the big two by Memorial Day.
Simple fact: McCain cannot win a head-on with Giuliani and perhaps is hopeless against others.
Giuliani hasn't the political and malodorous traits that pervade McCain (I can't stand him) and I doubt the public cares about The Mayor's divorces.
HH offers no insight on how important McCain's support and (supposed) supporters will prove in tipping the balance among whatever contestants remain. Also, lurking is the question whether McCain's neutralization might induce an entry by someone else.
Cited by Hewitt, here is Dick Morris's take.
~~Tocqueville
I am interested to see Hugh Hewitt agreeing with me that John McCain is toast and for the reasons Hewitt cites:
The GOP base has a trust issue with McCain, one that flows from the 2000 campaign, McCain-Feingold, the Gang of 14, the McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, the September 2006 derailing of the Republican end-game strategy.
McCain is fading, and not because of his age or energy level, but because the GOP electorate has to absolutely believe that the next president will be as committed to victory as Bush has been. Senator McCain's avoidance of new media has been reinforcing the impression that he is unwilling to provide the assurances he needs to in order to regain the trust he has repeatedly broken with the GOP electorate over the years. There is time to turn that around, but Senator McCain is not making the effort, an effort that would begin by a relentless courting of the base rather than the Hardball/Meet The Press audience. Every week that Senator McCain delays launching that effort is a week in which the mayor and the governor gather more pledges and momentum. The big three could be the big two by Memorial Day.
Simple fact: McCain cannot win a head-on with Giuliani and perhaps is hopeless against others.
Giuliani hasn't the political and malodorous traits that pervade McCain (I can't stand him) and I doubt the public cares about The Mayor's divorces.
HH offers no insight on how important McCain's support and (supposed) supporters will prove in tipping the balance among whatever contestants remain. Also, lurking is the question whether McCain's neutralization might induce an entry by someone else.
Cited by Hewitt, here is Dick Morris's take.
~~Tocqueville
A Waco Farmer wrote:
Ironically, Morris/McGann and Hewitt come to the same conclusion (McCain is finished) but for opposite underlying reasons. Hewitt argues that Republicans can't trust McCain. Morris/McGann argue that McCain is now a Republican toady.
Having said that, both analyses touch on some hot button issues for conservatives.
More importantly, Tocqueville and Morris/McGann speak to the real story: the emergence of Rudy.
I agree with Tocqueville. Rudy strikes me as the real deal.