Three states--California, Arizona, Florida--passed amendments to their state constitutions defining marriage as between one man and one woman.
We'll see how the inevitable court challenges procede.
Two lessons: first, social conservatism is not an electoral losing strategy; second, the majority of voters even in California are sick of activist judges imposing social change (the amendments are an attempt to reign in judicial activism such as seen in Massachusetts).
Therefore, political conservatism can be revived into a potent force in the United States with the right leadership and approach.
btw, Obama should be forwarned that nominating and appointing activist judges could leave him vulnerable in '12
We'll see how the inevitable court challenges procede.
Two lessons: first, social conservatism is not an electoral losing strategy; second, the majority of voters even in California are sick of activist judges imposing social change (the amendments are an attempt to reign in judicial activism such as seen in Massachusetts).
Therefore, political conservatism can be revived into a potent force in the United States with the right leadership and approach.
btw, Obama should be forwarned that nominating and appointing activist judges could leave him vulnerable in '12
05/11: The Religious Vote
The Pew Forum has this breakdown of religious voters in McCain v Obama.
President-elect Barack Obama made a concerted effort to reach out to people of faith during the 2008 presidential campaign, and early exit polls show that this outreach may have paid off on Election Day. Among nearly every religious group, the Democratic candidate received equal or higher levels of support compared with the 2004 Democratic nominee, John Kerry. Still, a sizeable gap persists between the support Obama received from white evangelical Protestants and his support among the religiously unaffiliated. Similarly, a sizeable gap exists between those who attend religious services regularly and those who attend less often.
Religious affiliation has been a good predictor of voting behavior throughout American history. New England Congegationalist = Adams supporter and Jefferson opponent; evangelical protestant = Whig Clay supporter, non-evangelical protestant = Democrat Andrew Jackson supporter. Roman Catholic almost always Democrat. Etc.
President-elect Barack Obama made a concerted effort to reach out to people of faith during the 2008 presidential campaign, and early exit polls show that this outreach may have paid off on Election Day. Among nearly every religious group, the Democratic candidate received equal or higher levels of support compared with the 2004 Democratic nominee, John Kerry. Still, a sizeable gap persists between the support Obama received from white evangelical Protestants and his support among the religiously unaffiliated. Similarly, a sizeable gap exists between those who attend religious services regularly and those who attend less often.
Religious affiliation has been a good predictor of voting behavior throughout American history. New England Congegationalist = Adams supporter and Jefferson opponent; evangelical protestant = Whig Clay supporter, non-evangelical protestant = Democrat Andrew Jackson supporter. Roman Catholic almost always Democrat. Etc.
Congratulations to President-elect Barack Obama, who ran the best campaign of my lifetime--possibly the best campaign ever.
Why did we lose this election?
Number One Reason: because we deserved to. Our only argument was that the other guys were going to be even more disastrous than we had been. True enough, perhaps, but not compelling.
As a tribe, we conservatives believe in consequences for bad decisions and poor performance. We failed miserably in our attempt to right this country. It is time to take our medicine. It is time to rebuild on a solid foundation of fundamental principles.
On the other hand, I wish Barack Obama success, for his success will be my success.
In truth, we know almost nothing about him. Four years ago he was an obscure state senator--and he is not naturally forthcoming about his history or his philosophy. Nevertheless, my sense (i.e. fervent prayer) is that he is an intelligent fellow and a good man. Let's hope for the best.
What are my realistic but optimistic expectations for an Obama presidency?
1. I hope that Obama will be a healer and a pragmatist.
2. I hope Obama completes the mission in Iraq regardless of where the credit for success may fall. If the president-elect decides to retain Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense, and David Petraeus as commander of Cent-Com, and allows them to back us out of Iraq in a responsible fashion, he will have my undying gratitude for the duration of his administration.
3. I hope the new president will address the long-term realities of spending and taxes and what is possible and sustainable (as opposed to banal Democratic Party talking points).
4. I hope the new president will address our long-term liabilities regarding education (as opposed to banal Democratic Party talking points).
5. I hope the president will address our long-term energy needs in a pragmatic way (as opposed to banal Democratic Party talking points).
What are my expectations for myself?
1. Realize that much more is at stake over the next few months and years than partisan victory.
2. Realize that the success of the next president is inextricably linked to our success as a nation in a moment in which we cannot afford to fail as a nation.
3. Support my president wholeheartedly on January 21st.
Of course, I will continue to advocate for my core principles, which are the same now as they have been for all of my adult life. However, I will do nothing to tear down this president. I will do all I can to guard against character assassination and Obama Derangement Syndrome.
If he succeeds grandly, we win as a nation. If he falls short, we will be back in time to offer another option--and maybe we will be better equipped to live up to our own ideals then.
May God Bless this President. May God Bless America.
Why did we lose this election?
Number One Reason: because we deserved to. Our only argument was that the other guys were going to be even more disastrous than we had been. True enough, perhaps, but not compelling.
As a tribe, we conservatives believe in consequences for bad decisions and poor performance. We failed miserably in our attempt to right this country. It is time to take our medicine. It is time to rebuild on a solid foundation of fundamental principles.
On the other hand, I wish Barack Obama success, for his success will be my success.
In truth, we know almost nothing about him. Four years ago he was an obscure state senator--and he is not naturally forthcoming about his history or his philosophy. Nevertheless, my sense (i.e. fervent prayer) is that he is an intelligent fellow and a good man. Let's hope for the best.
What are my realistic but optimistic expectations for an Obama presidency?
1. I hope that Obama will be a healer and a pragmatist.
2. I hope Obama completes the mission in Iraq regardless of where the credit for success may fall. If the president-elect decides to retain Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense, and David Petraeus as commander of Cent-Com, and allows them to back us out of Iraq in a responsible fashion, he will have my undying gratitude for the duration of his administration.
3. I hope the new president will address the long-term realities of spending and taxes and what is possible and sustainable (as opposed to banal Democratic Party talking points).
4. I hope the new president will address our long-term liabilities regarding education (as opposed to banal Democratic Party talking points).
5. I hope the president will address our long-term energy needs in a pragmatic way (as opposed to banal Democratic Party talking points).
What are my expectations for myself?
1. Realize that much more is at stake over the next few months and years than partisan victory.
2. Realize that the success of the next president is inextricably linked to our success as a nation in a moment in which we cannot afford to fail as a nation.
3. Support my president wholeheartedly on January 21st.
Of course, I will continue to advocate for my core principles, which are the same now as they have been for all of my adult life. However, I will do nothing to tear down this president. I will do all I can to guard against character assassination and Obama Derangement Syndrome.
If he succeeds grandly, we win as a nation. If he falls short, we will be back in time to offer another option--and maybe we will be better equipped to live up to our own ideals then.
May God Bless this President. May God Bless America.
I was depressed already this morning; this audio clip from The Howard Stern Show did not help. His crew did man-in-the-street interviews of Obama supporters. Obviously they had no clue what their candidate stood for.
Ironically, the triumph of Jacksonian Democracy enabled Obama to win. I wonder what the slave-owning Old Hickory thinks about all this.
btw, in case it is not on your screen, be sure to scroll down for Martian Mariner's post-election post. In a double irony, the triumph of Hamilton's economic ideas over Jefferson's enabled this urban triumph.
Ironically, the triumph of Jacksonian Democracy enabled Obama to win. I wonder what the slave-owning Old Hickory thinks about all this.
btw, in case it is not on your screen, be sure to scroll down for Martian Mariner's post-election post. In a double irony, the triumph of Hamilton's economic ideas over Jefferson's enabled this urban triumph.
05/11: I Was Wrong
Category: American History and Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
I owe Farmer a steak dinner in Ft. Worth.
I picked McCain to win, based on Obama's performance against Hillary in which the polls were higher than his actual results, the larger-than-usual number of refusals to pollsters that I assumed came more from McCain supporters than Obama supporters, the increased support and enthusiasm of evangelicals after the Palin pick, and my assumption that when in the voting booth the gut of many voters would prompt them not to vote for a candidate with ties to Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, and corrupt organizations like ACORN. I was wrong
Obama won, and did so getting over 50% of the popular vote, something that Clinton did not achieve in two elections.
What enabled Obama to win? The definitive book on this election is a generation away, but I offer a few non-original thoughts in no particular order.
*The Economy, specifically the crash on Wall Street, the mortage mess, and fears for the future.
*Popular Dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration.
*Obama's Race and the chance it gave millions of voters to help put the first black man into the White House.
*The image Obama created on television--handsome, thoughtful, articulate.
*The desire of an increasingly large number of Americans that their government take care of their basic needs: health care, employment security, retirement, etc.
*The success of the Bush Administration in the War Against Islamic Terrorists.
*And, while we now may never know the extent, vote fraud in Democrat-controlled urban areas such as Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Milwaukee.
*The Work of the Established Media in protecting Obama from serious investigation and discussion.
*Obama's Tremendous Financial Advantage because he refused public financing, and ran a contribution system that invited fraud.
Farmer, I'll email you to set up time and place.
I picked McCain to win, based on Obama's performance against Hillary in which the polls were higher than his actual results, the larger-than-usual number of refusals to pollsters that I assumed came more from McCain supporters than Obama supporters, the increased support and enthusiasm of evangelicals after the Palin pick, and my assumption that when in the voting booth the gut of many voters would prompt them not to vote for a candidate with ties to Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, and corrupt organizations like ACORN. I was wrong
Obama won, and did so getting over 50% of the popular vote, something that Clinton did not achieve in two elections.
What enabled Obama to win? The definitive book on this election is a generation away, but I offer a few non-original thoughts in no particular order.
*The Economy, specifically the crash on Wall Street, the mortage mess, and fears for the future.
*Popular Dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration.
*Obama's Race and the chance it gave millions of voters to help put the first black man into the White House.
*The image Obama created on television--handsome, thoughtful, articulate.
*The desire of an increasingly large number of Americans that their government take care of their basic needs: health care, employment security, retirement, etc.
*The success of the Bush Administration in the War Against Islamic Terrorists.
*And, while we now may never know the extent, vote fraud in Democrat-controlled urban areas such as Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Milwaukee.
*The Work of the Established Media in protecting Obama from serious investigation and discussion.
*Obama's Tremendous Financial Advantage because he refused public financing, and ran a contribution system that invited fraud.
Farmer, I'll email you to set up time and place.
As I mentioned a few days ago, I'm a spatially-focused kind of guy, and a sucker for maps. I love the immediate interpretation of vast amounts of data that a map can show. So, for the election results, I've been going straight to the maps. We've all seen the state-by-state maps, and have probably noticed that the map seems to look pretty red, even though Obama cleaned house with Electoral college votes.
The obvious explanation is that the difference is due to population in these states, which, since we're looking at this spatially, corresponds to population density. Obama overwhelmingly carried densely-populated areas. Compare this population density map, shown by county, with this election results map, also by county (scroll down a bit).
A more unconventional way to show the population difference is with a population-scaled cartogram. [Aside: these weighted cartograms can end up showing some really neat stuff. Check out this site and browse.] Someone's been industrious overnight, and we've already got a weighted cartogram for the election results, here.
County-by-county maps can show startling results. For example, my state, Missouri, is still "too close to call." A map of election results by county shows that only 8 of 114 counties were carried by Obama! (Plus the city of St. Louis, not in a county.) Looking at these counties, though, shows that you've got Kansas City, St. Louis, and Columbia all going Obama. Of course, this county-by-county examination is not completely meaningful, since there is no state electoral college, and many of those red counties were 55-44 sorts of places, and those 44s add up.
As far as conclusions go, well, I generally avoid them. But in this case, especially looking at the population density map and county election results map in conjunction, there seems to be significant evidence for an Urban-Rural gap in this country. Voting for a president is only partially indicative of overall values and preferences, but it is a key indicator. Rural and Urban Americans seem to value different things.
[I know, that's not much of a new point. But I do like to see some empirical evidence to back this up, in addition to the anecdotal and assumptive evidence we've had so far. I'm a bit more into social sciences than Farmer and gardener, and I think this preference of mine is one of the main reasons.]
The obvious explanation is that the difference is due to population in these states, which, since we're looking at this spatially, corresponds to population density. Obama overwhelmingly carried densely-populated areas. Compare this population density map, shown by county, with this election results map, also by county (scroll down a bit).
A more unconventional way to show the population difference is with a population-scaled cartogram. [Aside: these weighted cartograms can end up showing some really neat stuff. Check out this site and browse.] Someone's been industrious overnight, and we've already got a weighted cartogram for the election results, here.
County-by-county maps can show startling results. For example, my state, Missouri, is still "too close to call." A map of election results by county shows that only 8 of 114 counties were carried by Obama! (Plus the city of St. Louis, not in a county.) Looking at these counties, though, shows that you've got Kansas City, St. Louis, and Columbia all going Obama. Of course, this county-by-county examination is not completely meaningful, since there is no state electoral college, and many of those red counties were 55-44 sorts of places, and those 44s add up.
As far as conclusions go, well, I generally avoid them. But in this case, especially looking at the population density map and county election results map in conjunction, there seems to be significant evidence for an Urban-Rural gap in this country. Voting for a president is only partially indicative of overall values and preferences, but it is a key indicator. Rural and Urban Americans seem to value different things.
[I know, that's not much of a new point. But I do like to see some empirical evidence to back this up, in addition to the anecdotal and assumptive evidence we've had so far. I'm a bit more into social sciences than Farmer and gardener, and I think this preference of mine is one of the main reasons.]
04/11: Iowa for Obama?
Category: Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
It is 9:36 pm CST. The networks have called Iowa for Obama now with about 15% of the votes reported. I am looking at the Iowa state map, county by county vote totals. I do not see an Obama clinch yet. We'll know in a couple of hours about Iowa. At 9:40 I am cautiously optimistic about Missouri for McCain, looking at the county by county maps.
I grew up in Missouri and lived there several years as an adult; I lived several years in Iowa.
Update: 10:10pm CST I now can see calling Iowa for Obama. I am very surprised at his strength in the rural counties of central Iowa outside Polk County (Des Moines). It will be interesting to see any data on why these Iowan voted as they did. The economy?
I grew up in Missouri and lived there several years as an adult; I lived several years in Iowa.
Update: 10:10pm CST I now can see calling Iowa for Obama. I am very surprised at his strength in the rural counties of central Iowa outside Polk County (Des Moines). It will be interesting to see any data on why these Iowan voted as they did. The economy?
03/11: Jazz Trombone
Category: American Culture
Posted by: an okie gardener
As regular readers of this blog know, I am a jazz fan. What I have not shared yet is that in my younger days I played trombone, including jazz. (At about the age of 15 I heard Stan Kenton at the Kansas City Jazz Festival pronounce it trum-bone and I've said it that way ever since.)
So who are the great jazz trombone players?
When I was in high school, the man to imitate was J.J. Johnson.
From 1991, he's still got it. Here from the same concert. From back in the day.
We also tried to copy licks from Kai Winding. With the 1949 Metronome All Stars. And Winding and Johnson together in 1982.
When I started playing jazz in high school, I tried to imitate Jimmy Cleveland. Here in an interview and solo from 1958. Only I had to cheat and double-tongue some of the riffs he could single-tongue.
And we would have imitated Bill Watrous if we had his upper register.
Trombonists never get the spotlight in the same way saxophonists and others do, but we know the value of the strange-looking horn with the slide. Artistry in Rhythmn, the Stan Kenton Orchestra, and Malaga.
So who are the great jazz trombone players?
When I was in high school, the man to imitate was J.J. Johnson.
From 1991, he's still got it. Here from the same concert. From back in the day.
We also tried to copy licks from Kai Winding. With the 1949 Metronome All Stars. And Winding and Johnson together in 1982.
When I started playing jazz in high school, I tried to imitate Jimmy Cleveland. Here in an interview and solo from 1958. Only I had to cheat and double-tongue some of the riffs he could single-tongue.
And we would have imitated Bill Watrous if we had his upper register.
Trombonists never get the spotlight in the same way saxophonists and others do, but we know the value of the strange-looking horn with the slide. Artistry in Rhythmn, the Stan Kenton Orchestra, and Malaga.
03/11: No excuses: Vote.
We'll forget about the Voting Paradox for a moment, and say instead: Vote.
There are many good reasons, but I'll save the professoring for the farmer and gardener; I'll just point the way:
FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE
I'm a sucker for maps, especially when they're searchable and applicable. Don't know where to vote? Just go to the above link, type in your address, and get a map showing you how to get to your polling place. Ain't technology grand?
I'll be riding my bike to my polling place at 7am and casting my vote for all federal, state, and local elections. Democracy rolls on.
There are many good reasons, but I'll save the professoring for the farmer and gardener; I'll just point the way:
FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE
I'm a sucker for maps, especially when they're searchable and applicable. Don't know where to vote? Just go to the above link, type in your address, and get a map showing you how to get to your polling place. Ain't technology grand?
I'll be riding my bike to my polling place at 7am and casting my vote for all federal, state, and local elections. Democracy rolls on.
Category: Politics
Posted by: an okie gardener
We need a man that is simple perfection
There's nothing that's harder to find
Someone to lead us protect us and feed us
And help us to make up our minds
We need a man that's sophisticated
Quiet and strong and well educated
Where to go what to do
Could it be somebody super like you
We need a man that can stand as a symbol
And symbols have got to be tall
Someone with taste and the tiniest waist
With his help would not life be a ball
If we had fun he would not restrain us
If we got caught he would just explain us
Where to go what to do
Could it be somebody super like you
We pledge allegiance to his
Gracefulness and charming manners
With a voice that's both sides choice
He'll bring us to our knees in admiration
He is king of all who see and hear his perfect pitch
And more surprises when his time is come a stallion rises
We need a man with a head on his shoulders
A nose that is simply divine
Hollywood smile and a perfect profile
And with eyes that would sparkle and shine
Long flowing hair for a crowning glory
There'd be a man who could tell our story
Where to go what to do
Could it be somebody super like you
We pledge allegiance to his
Gracefulness and charming manners
With a voice that's both sides choice
He'll bring us to our knees in admiration
He is king of all who see and hear his perfect pitch
And more surprises when his time is come a stallion rises
Rises... rises... rises
"Somebody Super Like You" by Paul Williams
Performance from Phantom of the Paradise
Liberty can be frightening. There really is an "Anxiety of Freedom." Therefore there always will be the tug toward The Strong Man, Someone to lead us protect us and feed us
And help us to make up our minds
We have seen a lot of that tendency this election. Mostly among Obama supporters, who have romantically, not rationally, chosen someone to make their lives better. The Obama movement this year has reminded me of Juan Peron in Argentina. And of Plato's prediction that the demogogue would be the end of democracy.
Be careful what you wish for.
This song is from The Phantom of the Paradise, lyrics by Paul Williams. Trailer. A great little movie combining Faust, The Phantom of the Opera, and Shock Rock. Early Brian De Palma.
There's nothing that's harder to find
Someone to lead us protect us and feed us
And help us to make up our minds
We need a man that's sophisticated
Quiet and strong and well educated
Where to go what to do
Could it be somebody super like you
We need a man that can stand as a symbol
And symbols have got to be tall
Someone with taste and the tiniest waist
With his help would not life be a ball
If we had fun he would not restrain us
If we got caught he would just explain us
Where to go what to do
Could it be somebody super like you
We pledge allegiance to his
Gracefulness and charming manners
With a voice that's both sides choice
He'll bring us to our knees in admiration
He is king of all who see and hear his perfect pitch
And more surprises when his time is come a stallion rises
We need a man with a head on his shoulders
A nose that is simply divine
Hollywood smile and a perfect profile
And with eyes that would sparkle and shine
Long flowing hair for a crowning glory
There'd be a man who could tell our story
Where to go what to do
Could it be somebody super like you
We pledge allegiance to his
Gracefulness and charming manners
With a voice that's both sides choice
He'll bring us to our knees in admiration
He is king of all who see and hear his perfect pitch
And more surprises when his time is come a stallion rises
Rises... rises... rises
"Somebody Super Like You" by Paul Williams
Performance from Phantom of the Paradise
Liberty can be frightening. There really is an "Anxiety of Freedom." Therefore there always will be the tug toward The Strong Man, Someone to lead us protect us and feed us
And help us to make up our minds
We have seen a lot of that tendency this election. Mostly among Obama supporters, who have romantically, not rationally, chosen someone to make their lives better. The Obama movement this year has reminded me of Juan Peron in Argentina. And of Plato's prediction that the demogogue would be the end of democracy.
Be careful what you wish for.
This song is from The Phantom of the Paradise, lyrics by Paul Williams. Trailer. A great little movie combining Faust, The Phantom of the Opera, and Shock Rock. Early Brian De Palma.
